Article in Journal

Großhandel: Geschäftsaussichten erneut verbessert


ifo Institut, München, 2017

in: ifo Konjunkturperspektiven, 2017, 44, Nr. 07, 15-18

The business climate indicator in wholesaling continued to rise in July. The current business situation was still assessed as extremely favourable, but narrowly failed to hit last month's record high. Optimism over the six-month business outlook continued to grow. The Federation of German Wholesale and Foreign Trade (BGA) expects nominal turnover to fall in the second quarter due to a more moderate price dynamic. According to data from the German Federal Statistics Office, turnover fell in April compared to the same period a year previously (–5.2 real / –1.2 nominal). According to ifo's survey results, wholesalers were satisfied with the development in their turnover on balance, but to a markedly lesser degree than recently. The official statistics show that wholesaling sales prices rose by 2.5% compared to the same period in the previous year. Wholesalers reported implementing price increases less frequently in July than in June. By contrast, far more wholesalers expect price increases in the months ahead. Inventories rose marginally, but remained below their long-term average. A slightly higher number of wholesalers surveyed plan to increase their order volumes in the months ahead. According to official data, the number of employed persons rose by 1.1% in April compared to the same period of 2016. On balance, the wholesalers surveyed expect to continue to recruit staff, but to a lesser extent than last month.

JEL Classification: L810

Included in

Journal (Complete Issue)
ifo Institut, München, 2017