ifo Dresden

Business Cycles and Growth

A research focus of the Dresden Branch is the surveillance and forecast of the business cycle in Saxony and the new federal states. For this purpose, the branch carries out monthly evaluations of the ifo Business Climate Index as well as semiannual business cycle forecasts for the Free State of Saxony and Eastern Germany as a whole. Additionally, the branch conducts research at the intersection of business cycles and growth policy.

Regional and Sectoral Structural Change

This field of work analyses regional and sectoral disaggregated growth and convergence processes. The focus is on comparative analyses of Eastern and Western Germany as well as rural and urban areas. The research group’s aim is to propose policy options for adjusting living conditions of economically lagging regions. Economic indicators are constantly monitored, e. g. on demographic change and convergence progress of Eastern German regions. Moreover, the research group focuses on relevant tendencies in education and innovation economics and the long- term causes of spatial socio-economic differences.

Public Economics and Funding Policies

For years, the ifo Dresden branch has been intensively involved in the analysis of public budgets and fiscal policy issues. The focus is on revenue and expenditure policy decisions of the federal states or the municipalities in East Germany. In this field of research, funding-policy measures are also evaluated and proposals for their further development are made. Furthermore, political economy issues are also a research focus, for example, with regard to the (regional economic) factors influencing electoral decisions and political processes.

Demography

The shrinking and aging of the population has a significant impact on nearly all fields of social and economic development and thereby poses new challenges to economic policy. Research in this area describes the general tendencies of population development and analyzes the implications of demographic change on economic development especially in Eastern Germany.

The ifo business climate in eastern Germany is based on around 1,200 reports from companies in the manufacturing, construction, wholesale and retail sectors.

ifo Business Climate East Germany

The regional evaluation for Saxony contains the ifo Business Climate for Saxony and selected areas of the Saxon economy as well as the ifo Employment Barometer for Saxony.

ifo Business Climate for Saxony

ifo Economic Forecast East Germany and Saxony

Since the founding of the ifo branch in Dresden in 1993, economic monitoring has been one of the fundamental research areas of the ifo staff in Dresden. In recent years, a system for economic forecasting for the new federal states and Saxony has been developed taking into account data from the ifo business cycle test for the new federal states and Saxony. Since 2001, the ifo Dresden branch has twice a year produced a forecast for the development of the economy and the labour market in Saxony in consultation with the economic researchers at the ifo headquarters in Munich. From 2004, the forecast will also cover the whole of eastern Germany. These forecasts are based on the ifo Institute's economic forecasts for Germany as a whole for the middle and end of the year. The current forecast is presented with a press conference and a meeting of the working group "Konjunkturbeobachtung Sachsen" and published in the magazine ifo Dresden berichtet.

Latest Forecast

The ifo Dresden Newsletter is a service offered by the Dresden Branch of the ifo Institute, which regularly reports on the branch's current publications and events. It is dispatched every two months around the publication date of the journal ifo Dresden berichtet.

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Prof. Dr. Michael Berlemann, Helmut Schmidt Universität Hamburg

Prof. Dr. Alexander Karmann, Technische Universität Dresden

Prof. Dr. Christian Leßmann, Technische Universität Dresden

Prof. Dr. Georg Milbradt, Technische Universität Dresden

Prof. Dr. Felix Rösel, TU Braunschweig

Prof. Dr. Ronnie Schöb, Freie Universität Berlin