Economic Experts Survey: Experts Expect Inflation to Remain High Until 2028 (4th Quarter 2024)

How are economists’ expectations for future price developments evolving worldwide? How is the transition to a new inflation regime reflected in experts’ inflation expectations?

In the Q4 2024 survey wave, we examine economists’ inflation expectations at a global level. The result: Expectations for short-run inflation rates did not decline further. Long-term inflation expectations also remain at a relatively high level.

Graphic, Global Inflation Expectations, EES Q4

Note: The figure shows the expected global average inflation rates for the years 2024 (5,0%), 2025 (4,4%) and 2027 (3,7%). The median of the averages at the country level is shown.

Global Inflation Expectations Stagnate: For 2025, the expected global average inflation rate is 3.9%. This is on the same level as the expectations in the previous quarter (3.9% in Q3 2024). Short-term inflation expectations hence stagnate and continue to remain at a high level worldwide. Experts also expect high inflation rates worldwide in the years ahead. With an average expected inflation rate of 3.5% for 2026, expectations globally are 0.4 p.p. lower compared to expectations for 2025. In the long term up to 2028, inflation expectations are also at 3.5%. This represents a slight decrease compared with the previous quarter (3.6%). Long-term inflation expectations are hence also stagnating. The figure below visualizes these trends over time.

Grafik, Global Inflation Expectations over Time, EES Q4

Note: The figure shows the expected global average inflation rates for the years 2025 and 2027 over time. The median of the averages at the country level is shown in each case.

Inflation Expectations Above Targets in the Short-Run: Inflation expectations vary widely across world regions. For 2025, experts expect the lowest inflation rates in Western Europe (2.1%). Expectations in North America, Oceania and Northern Europe are slightly higher (2.6-2.7%). Expectations in other parts of Europe (Southern Europe: 3.5%, Eastern Europe: 7.5%) remain above central banks’ inflation targets. Within Asia, there is substantial heterogeneity across subregions. While expectations in Eastern Asia (2.9%) and South-Eastern Asia (3.2%) are only slightly elevated compared to inflation targets, expectations are significantly higher in Western, Southern and Central Asia (7.3, 7.4 and 11.1% respectively). With the exception of Southern Africa (4.4%), all other African regions expect short-run inflation rates to be well above average (Western Africa: 10.8%; Middle Africa: 13.5%; Eastern Africa 27.6%; Northern Africa 37.2%).

In the long term, experts have inflation expectations with varying dynamics in the world regions. For 2028, experts expect inflation rates in Western Europe (2.0%), Northern Europe (2.5%), Oceania (2.5%) to almost return to or approach the 2% inflation rate targeted by many central banks. However, for some subregions, the expectations are higher than in the previous quarter. Higher long-term inflation expectations are recorded, for example in Southern Europe (2.7%), Northern America (2.9%), Eastern Europe (4.8%) Eastern Asia (3.0%), Southern Asia (8.1%), and in Southern Africa (3.8%). The highest long-term inflation rates are expected in Middle Africa (17%) and Eastern Africa (44%).

The Economic Experts Survey (EES) is a quarterly survey conducted by the ifo Institute and the Institute for Swiss Economic Policy. 1398 economic experts from 125 countries took part in the survey on inflation from December 4, 2024 to December 18, 2024.