Prof. Dr. Niklas Potrafke

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Leading economists believe that incurring new debt in order to invest in infrastructure is not a priority. This was the result of a survey conducted by the ifo Institute in which 205 professors of economics took part. In the view of those surveyed, reforms in the areas of bureaucracy and pension, energy, and climate policy would be more important. “Massive debts for investments in infrastructure, as currently envisaged by the CDU/CSU and SPD, are not the most important reform topics of the new German government,” says ifo expert Niklas Potrafke.

Economic experts expect very different effects from Donald Trump’s second presidency. While respondents in the US and Western Europe are extremely pessimistic, respondents in other regions expect little to no negative impact or are even hopeful, finds the Economic Experts Survey, a quarterly survey conducted by the ifo Institute and the Swiss Economic Policy Institute. “There is widespread concern particularly in Western industrialized countries that Donald Trump will damage the economy,” says ifo researcher Niklas Potrafke. “In Africa, Latin America and Asia, on the other hand, experts hardly expect any negative effects on economic growth in their countries.” 

Economic experts from around the world expect only a slight decline in inflation rates in the next four years, finds the Economic Experts Survey, a quarterly survey conducted by the ifo Institute and the Swiss Economic Policy Institute. According to the survey, a global average inflation rate of 3.9 percent is expected in 2025. “Inflation expectations remain above the central banks’ inflation targets,” says ifo researcher Niklas Potrafke. “Greater interest rate cuts are unlikely with these inflation expectations.” 

According to a recent global survey of economic experts, the Economic Experts Survey, respondents from the US in particular fear an increase in political instability and a deterioration in international economic relations. “US economic experts have been very pessimistic for a year now. They are much more concerned than experts from other countries that their home country will become more politically unstable,” says ifo researcher Niklas Potrafke.

Economic experts from around the world expect inflation rates to remain above the central banks’ targets, finds the Economic Experts Survey, a quarterly survey conducted by the ifo Institute and the Swiss Economic Policy Institute. According to the survey, inflation in Germany for this year is expected to reach 2.4 percent, in Austria 3.1 percent, and in France 2.3 percent. In the eurozone, the figure is 2.6 percent. “Inflation is also expected to exceed the European Central Bank’s target of two percent in the medium term,” says ifo researcher Niklas Potrafke. “Due to these stagnating inflation expectations, central banks could hold back on further interest rate cuts.” 

In terms of public finances, minority governments act in a similar way to majority governments, according to a study by the ifo Institute in the latest ifo Schnelldienst, which looks at the link between minority governments in the German federal states and their budget deficits. “Minority governments often have a bad reputation among the population. But in fact, their management of the economy is no worse than that of majority governments,” says Niklas Potrafke, Director of the ifo Center for Public Finance and Political Economy.

German economists are divided on the planned EU tariffs on cars from China. 33 percent of the participants in the ifo Economists Panel consider the EU’s planned countervailing duties just right for counteracting the Chinese government’s subsidies. 11 percent want lower tariffs, six percent want higher. At the same time, 33 percent of the professors think that no countervailing duties would be appropriate. Above all, they cite the risk of an impending trade war. They argue that tariffs would not eliminate the dominance of Chinese electric cars, and that European manufacturers would not become more efficient as a result of tariffs. “Dealing with China is challenging. Geopolitical risks, responses to China’s economic and export strategy, and maintaining free trade must be weighed against each other,” says Niklas Potrafke, Director of the ifo Center for Public Finance. 

ifo researcher Niklas Potrafke has criticized the pension package recently adopted by the German government. “Freezing the pension level at 48 percent and suspending the sustainability factor completely ignores the realities in Germany. Demographic change demands a different pension policy. The introduction of the sustainability factor 20 years ago marked a cautious start to taking account of demographic trends in the pension system. In Germany, fewer and fewer young people have to look after an increasing number of older people. With the population structure developing in this way, pensions will have to rise much more slowly,” Potrafke said in Munich on Wednesday.

Economic experts in Northern and Eastern Europe are seeing the negative impact of the war in Ukraine on the political and economic situation in their countries particularly clearly. This is a finding of the Economic Experts Survey (EES) conducted by the ifo Institute and the Swiss Economic Policy Institute (IWP). “Since the outbreak of the war, respondents who mention the keywords ‘Russia,’ ‘Ukraine,’ ‘NATO’ or ‘War’ in their answers have a much more negative view of their country’s political and economic situation than the others,” says ifo researcher Tuuli Tähtinen.

In an international comparison of business locations, economics professors gave Germany a grade of just 3.4 (on a scale of 1 to 6, where 1 is the best score). This is according to the latest ifo Institute Economists Panel. A grade of 3 was awarded by 38% of respondents, 20% gave a 2, 17% a 4, and 20% a 5. “This poor result is quite worrying for Germany as an industrial nation,” says Niklas Potrafke, Director of the ifo Center for Public Finance and Political Economy.

Les professeurs d’économie attribuent à l’Allemagne une note de seulement 3,4 (sur une échelle de 1 à 6, 1 étant la meilleure note) dans une étude comparant les différentes économies du monde. C’est ce qui ressort du dernier panel d’économistes de l’Institut ifo. 38 % des personnes interrogées ont attribué la note 3, 20 % la note 2, 17 % la note 4 et 20% la note 5. « Ce mauvais résultat est inquiétant pour une nation industrielle comme l’Allemagne », estime Niklas Potrafke, directeur du Centre de recherches sur les finances publiques et l’économique politique de l’Institut ifo.

Economic experts from around the world expect inflation rates to decline in the years ahead. This is among the findings of the Economic Experts Survey, a quarterly survey conducted by the ifo Institute and the Swiss Economic Policy Institute. According to this survey, the inflation rate worldwide will reach 4.6% in 2024, then 4.4% next year, and 4.0% in 2027. In Germany, inflation for this year is expected to reach 3.1%, in Austria 4.2%, and in Switzerland 1.8%. “Compared to the previous quarter, inflation expectations for this year have fallen further,” says ifo researcher Niklas Potrafke. “But in the medium term, the experts expect inflation rates around the world to remain quite high and above central banks’ inflation targets.”

Les économistes du monde entier anticipent une baisse des taux d’inflation dans les prochaines années. C’est ce qui ressort de l’Economic Experts Survey (EES), un sondage trimestriel réalisé par l’Institut ifo et l’Institut de politique économique suisse IWP. D’après cette enquête, le taux d’inflation mondial devrait atteindre 4,6 % en 2024, avant de retomber à 4,4 % en 2025 et à 4,0 % en 2027. Cette année, l’inflation devrait être de 3,1 % en Allemagne, de 4,2 % en Autriche et de 1,8 % en Suisse. « Les prévisions pour 2024 en matière d’inflation ont de nouveau baissé par rapport au trimestre pré-cédent », constate Niklas Potrafke, chercheur de l’Institut Ifo. « Les experts anti-cipent cependant à l’échelle mondiale des taux d’inflation assez élevés à moyen terme, supérieurs aux objectifs des banques centrales. »

ifo President Clemens Fuest and Niklas Potrafke, Director of the ifo Center for Public Finance, argue that the German debt brake should be retained without reforms. The economists present their reasoning in a recent article for ifo Schnelldienst. “It forces politicians to set priorities. At the same time, it gives the government sufficient leeway to take on debt in cases where it makes economic sense,” Fuest says. The current regulations also include the possibility of special cases for taking on debt, as for the German Armed Forces. Requiring a two-thirds majority in a Bundestag vote is appropriate in such instances.

Economic experts from around the world expect inflation rates to decline in the years ahead, finds the Economic Experts Survey, a quarterly survey conducted by the ifo Institute and the Swiss Economic Policy Institute. According to this survey, the inflation rate worldwide will reach 5.0 percent in 2024, then 4.4 percent next year, and 3.6 percent in 2027. In the US, inflation for this year is expected to reach 3.2 percent, in the UK 4.3 percent, and in Ireland 3.0 percent. “Compared to last year, inflation expectations for this year are significantly lower,” says ifo researcher Niklas Potrafke. Germany will have a rate of 3.4 percent.

Les économistes du monde entier anticipent une baisse des taux d’inflation dans les années à venir. C’est ce qui ressort de l’Economic Experts Survey (EES), un sondage trimestriel réalisé par l’Institut ifo et l’Institut de politique écono-mique suisse IWP. D’après ce sondage, le taux d’inflation mondial atteindra 5,0% en 2024, avant de retomber à 4,4% en 2025 et à 3,6% en 2027. Cette année, l’inflation sera de 3,2% en France, de 3,7% en Belgique et de 2,0% en Suisse. « Les prévisions concernant l’inflation sont beaucoup plus basses cette année que l’année dernière », constate Niklas Potrafke, chercheur de l’Institut Ifo. Pour l’Allemagne, ils tablent sur 3,4%.

German economists are divided on the country’s federal budget and the debt brake. Of those surveyed, 48 percent are in favor of prioritizing spending cuts in the 2024 budget; 38 percent see an increase in government borrowing as the primary way to inject more money into the 2024 budget. These are findings from the Economists Panel, a survey of economic experts at German universities by the ifo Institute. “There are similar levels of support for the existing debt brake and for a reformed, investment-based version. What respondents agree on is that the debt brake should not be abolished completely,” says ifo President Clemens Fuest.  “The respondents’ preference for spending cuts could be a reaction to the expansion of government spending in recent years,” explains ifo researcher Niklas Potrafke.

Les économistes constatent une faible amélioration du contexte économique en France par rapport au trimestre précédent. C’est ce qui ressort de l’Economic Experts Survey (EES), un sondage trimestriel réalisé par l’Institut ifo et l’Institut de politique économique suisse IWP dans le monde entier.

Economic experts see a steep decline in the economic situation in the UK compared to the previous quarter. This is a finding of the Economic Experts Survey (EES) – a global quarterly survey conducted by the ifo Institute and the Swiss Economic Policy Institute.

Economic experts from around the world expect inflation rates to decline in the years ahead, finds the Economic Experts Survey, a quarterly survey conducted by the ifo Institute and the Swiss Economic Policy Institute. According to this survey, the inflation rate worldwide will reach 6.2 percent this year, then 5.2 percent next year, and 4.5 percent in 2026. In the UK, inflation for the current year is expected to reach 6.5 percent, in Ireland 5.6 percent, in the US 4.2 and in Canada 4.1 percent. “Although inflation expectations are still high, they have fallen significantly compared with the previous quarter,” says ifo researcher Niklas Potrafke.

Des économistes du monde entier anticipent une baisse des taux d'inflation dans les prochaines années. C'est ce qui ressort de l'Economic Experts Survey (EES), un sondage trimestriel réalisé par l'Institut ifo et l'Institut de politique économique suisse IWP. D’après ce sondage, le taux d'inflation mondial atteindra 6,2 % cette année, avant de tomber à 5,2 % en 2024 et à 4,5 % en 2026. Pendant l'année en cours, l'inflation sera de 5,1 % en France, de 4,5 % en Belgique, de 2,6 % en Suisse et de 5,2 % au Luxembourg. « Si ces prévisions restent élevées, elles ont cependant sensiblement reculé par rapport au trimestre précédent », constate Niklas Potrafke, chercheur à l'Institut ifo.

Halfway through the legislative period, economics professors take a dim view of the economic policy pursued by Germany’s traffic light coalition. This is according to the latest ifo and FAZ Economists Panel, in which 205 economics professors took part in September. “The participants are especially critical of the traffic light coalition parties’ proposed energy policy,” says ifo researcher Niklas Potrafke. In light of Russia’s war of aggression, 58 percent are against the permanent phaseout of nuclear power; 38 percent are in favor. “By phasing out nuclear power, we cut off a climate-friendly source of energy and lose yet more ground in international competitiveness due to high energy prices,” Potrafke says.

Economic experts from Europe see a slight deterioration in the economic policy situation in their country over the previous quarter, finds the Economic Experts Survey (EES) – a global quarterly survey conducted by the ifo Institute and the Swiss Economic Policy Institute. These experts assess economic policy in their countries over the previous quarter at -6 points on a scale of -100 to +100. “Particularly in Southern Europe, the experts assess the economic policy situation as worse than in the previous quarter, at -12 points,” says ifo researcher Niklas Potrafke. 

Economic experts from around the world expect inflation rates to remain high in the years ahead, finds the Economic Experts Survey, a quarterly survey conducted by the ifo Institute and the Swiss Economic Policy Institute. According to this survey, the inflation rate worldwide will reach 7.0% this year, then 6.0% next year, and 4.9% in 2026. “The expectations for 2023 and the next few years are virtually identical to those of the survey carried out in the first quarter,” says ifo researcher Niklas Potrafke. “We’ll have to brace ourselves for high inflation rates.”

German economists are calling for more money in the 2024 federal budget for the country’s Ministry of Defence (59 percent), the Ministry of Education and Research (54 percent) and the Ministry for Digital and Transport (51 percent). This is a finding of the new ifo Economists Panel, which had 177 participants. “The budget should prioritize spending on public goods that benefit all citizens,” explains ifo researcher Niklas Potrafke. The economists see the greatest need for public investment in the areas of energy, transport, and digital services (81 percent), education and science (69 percent), and external security and defense (62 percent).

Economic experts in major European countries are particularly critical of the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). This is the finding of a global survey carried out by the ifo Institute in collaboration with the Swiss Economic Policy Institute. “Misgivings are especially grave in Germany and France. Economists in the UK, Ireland, Italy, Switzerland, Austria, and Belgium are also skeptical. But their colleagues outside Europe are far more relaxed about the effects of the IRA. There the law is playing a relatively small part in the public debate,” says ifo researcher Niklas Potrafke.

Les critiques des expertes et experts économiques à l'égard de la loi américaine sur la réduction de l'inflation (IRA) sont particulièrement sévères dans les grands pays européens. C'est le résultat d'une enquête mondiale de l'Institut ifo, menée en coopération avec l'institut de politique économique suisse IWP. « Les préoccupations sont particulièrement vives en France et en Allemagne. Les économistes de Suisse, de Belgique, d'Italie, du Royaume-Uni, d'Autriche, et d'Irlande se déclarent également plutôt sceptiques. À l'extérieur de l'Europe, les conséquences de l'IRA sont loin de susciter les mêmes craintes et de dominer le débat politique actuel », constate Niklas Potrafke, chercheur à l'Institut ifo.

Economic experts from Western Europe see a slight improvement in the economic policy situation in their region over the previous quarter, finds the Economic Experts Survey (EES) – a global quarterly survey conducted by the ifo Institute and the Swiss Economic Policy Institute. According to the survey, these experts assess economic policy in their region as slightly better than in the previous quarter, at plus 3 points on a scale of minus 100 to plus 100. In Germany, however, local respondents gave economic policy a worse rating of minus 9, while in Austria it was minus 5 and in Switzerland plus 1. 

Economic experts from around the world expect inflation rates to remain high, finds the Economic Experts Survey, a quarterly survey conducted by the ifo Institute and the Swiss Economic Policy Institute. According to this survey, the inflation rate worldwide will reach 7 percent this year, then 5.9 percent next year, and 5 percent in 2026. “Expectations for 2023 are almost identical to those expressed in the survey at the beginning of the year. For next year and 2026, inflation expectations have actually increased somewhat,” says ifo researcher Niklas Potrafke. “Inflation will remain at a very high level.”

Banking problems notwithstanding, economists in Germany believe the European Central Bank (ECB) should increase interest rates further. This is the finding of the latest ifo Economists Panel, a joint undertaking with FAZ. The survey was completed by 132 economics professors at the end of March. It found that 67 percent support further interest rate increases, 21 percent are in favor of retaining current interest rates, and only 3 percent believe interest rates should be lowered. At the same time, they call for more equity on the part of European banks as security. Almost three quarters (72 percent) are in favor of this – once the current turmoil has passed. At 76 percent, support for introducing equity for government bonds for the first time is even stronger. “Experts are slightly uneasy but don’t expect a severe financial crisis,” says ifo researcher Niklas Potrafke. 

Economic experts from all over the world are rather cautious about the economic development in their countries in 2023. This is a finding of the Economic Experts Survey (EES), a global quarterly survey conducted by the ifo Institute and the Swiss Economic Policy Institute. Expectations for the individual countries average out to a global growth rate of 2.8 percent. “This means that our experts believe a global recession is becoming increasingly unlikely,” says ifo researcher Klaus Gründler.

The Republican takeover of the US House of Representatives could slow economic growth in the United States, suggests the ifo Institute’s historical analysis of data gathered since 1861. “Economic growth averaged about 4.2 percent per year when the President and the majority of representatives in both chambers of Congress belonged to the same party,” says ifo researcher Niklas Potrafke. “Under a divided government, when Congress was not held by the President’s party, the figure was only 2.6 percent per year.” 

Economic experts from around the world expect inflation to gradually decline, finds the latest Economic Experts Survey, which is conducted quarterly by the ifo Institute and the Swiss Economic Policy Institute. According to this, the inflation rate worldwide will reach 7.1 percent in the new year, then 5.8 percent next year, and only 4.5 percent in 2026. “Expectations at the beginning of the year are encouraging because, compared with the previous quarter, experts see somewhat lower inflation rates,” says ifo researcher Niklas Potrafke. “Nevertheless, inflation remains at a very high level.”

European economic experts view the economic policy situation on the continent as worse, finds the Economic Experts Survey (EES) – a global quarterly survey conducted by the ifo Institute and the Swiss Economic Policy Institute –  which this time had 1,537 participants from 133 countries. “In Europe, the economic policy situation is rated worse than in the previous quarter,” says ifo researcher Niklas Potrafke. “According to experts, governments have failed, in particular, to adequately tackle the challenges of the future with their economic policy.”

Economists expect inflation rates worldwide to be high this year and next. For 2022, the expected rate is 9.5 percent, finds the latest Economic Experts Survey (EES) – a quarterly survey conducted by the ifo Institute and the Swiss Economic Policy Institute – which this time had 1,687 participants from over 100 countries. “Compared with the second quarter, inflation expectations for 2022 have once again risen significantly by 1.8 percentage points,” says ifo researcher Niklas Potrafke.

The continued operation of Germany’s remaining nuclear power plants and aid payments to low-income households are proposals that are particularly popular among the 178 participants in the ifo and FAZ Economists Panel. “Germany has to expand its supply of electricity and reduce demand,” says ifo researcher Niklas Potrafke. “Demand won’t drop as a result of the price cap on energy. Rather, policymakers need to maintain the incentive effect of high prices, and households and businesses in need of help should receive targeted payments.”

Expected inflation rates are very high around the world. For 2022, the rate is forecast to average 7.7 percent. These are among the findings of the latest Economic Experts Survey (EES) – a survey conducted by the ifo Institute and the Swiss Economic Policy Institute – which this time had  participants from over 100 countries. “Inflation has arrived in all parts of the globe – and it’s here to stay,” says ifo researcher Niklas Potrafke. “The inflation rate expected in 2022 is about five percentage points higher than the rate reported by the World Bank for the period from 2010 to 2019.” 

The assessment of the political situation improved worldwide in the second quarter of 2022, finds the latest Economic Experts Survey (EES) – a global quarterly survey conducted by the ifo Institute and the Swiss Economic Policy Institute – which this time had 1,795 participants from 127 countries. At plus 10 points, they assessed political stability worldwide as significantly better than in the previous quarter. “Despite energy and food crises, even worse fears from the war in Ukraine have fortunately failed to materialize,” says ifo researcher Niklas Potrafke. “At least the fighting has remained regional.”

Coronavirus health measures have improved significantly during the first quarter of 2022, according to a survey of experts. On average, assessments were up 10 points compared to the previous quarter. Moreover, the respondents favored a further easing of restrictions. These are among the findings of the latest Economic Experts Survey (EES) – a global quarterly survey conducted by the ifo Institute and the Swiss Economic Policy Institute – which this time had 1,603 participants from 132 countries. “While protecting public health has been the priority during the pandemic, the economic cost of the coronavirus has been high,” says ifo researcher Niklas Potrafke. “The relatively mild effects of the Omicron variant mean that restrictions can now be eased considerably.”

Economic policy in Eastern Europe and the general political situation there deteriorated in the first quarter of 2022, according to the 1,603 economics experts from 132 countries who participated in the latest Economic Experts Survey (EES), which is conducted quarterly by the ifo Institute and the Swiss Economic Policy Institute. The survey suggests that the economic situation in Eastern Europe deteriorated significantly, dropping 10 points compared with the previous quarter. Assessments of the political situation also fell by 9 points. “Russia’s attack on Ukraine has plunged the region into a deep economic and political crisis,” says ifo researcher Niklas Potrafke.

Economists expect an average inflation rate of 4.4 percent for Germany in the current year. This is a finding from the ifo and FAZ Economists Panel, a joint quarterly survey. For the coming year, they expect inflation to be 3.4 percent. Since the European Central Bank’s inflation target is close to 2 percent, the ECB should start fighting inflation immediately, say 75 percent of survey participants; 69 percent consider an interest rate hike to be the most appropriate measure. “Russia’s war against Ukraine has added another driver to already high inflation,” says ifo researcher Niklas Potrafke. “The ECB should now finally raise interest rates to help contain inflation.”

Deutsche Volkswirt*innen bewerten den Koalitionsvertrag des Ampelbündnisses positiv. Dieser Meinung sind drei Fünftel der Antwortenden des Ökonomenpanels. „Die Ökonominnen und Ökonomen verweisen auf die ambitionierten Klimaschutz-Ziele und den Ausbau der digitalen Infrastruktur“, sagt ifo-Forscher Niklas Potrafke. Ein Fünftel allerdings äußert sich kritisch zu unkonkreten Ausgestaltungen von Zielen und zu erforderlichen Maßnahmen. Beim Ökonomenpanel befragen das ifo Institut und die Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung Wirtschaftsprofessor*innen an deutschen Universitäten.

In the wake of national crises, such as financial crises or natural disasters, governments often raise taxes. This is the finding of a new study conducted by the ifo Institute. “The majority of tax increases made due to crises happen very quickly, either while the crisis is still happening or in the following year,” says Prof. Niklas Potrafke, Director of the ifo Center for Public Finance and Political Economy.

In the opinion of 83 percent of responding economists, a coalition of the SPD, the Greens, and the Left Party would deliver the lowest growth rate of all plausible alliances following Germany’s upcoming election. “According to 44 percent of participants, the highest growth would be achieved by a Black/Yellow coalition – but this grouping of the CDU/CSU and FDP lacks a majority according to current polls,” says ifo researcher Niklas Potrafke. Meanwhile, 38 percent of participants believe carbon emissions would be reduced the most under an SPD/Green coalition, which currently also lacks a majority. These are findings from the latest Economists Panel, a survey of economics professors at German universities by the ifo Institute and Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung.

Tax increases in industrialized countries are often implemented directly after elections. This is a finding of a new ifo Institute study published in ifo Schnelldienst. “We saw increases mainly in sales and income tax rates after elections – in other words, taxes that the majority of voters feel directly in their wallets,” says Prof. Niklas Potrafke, Director of the ifo Center for Public Finance and Political Economy. “Moreover, our findings do not suggest that left-wing and right-wing governments have pursued different tax policies.”

Countries with crisis experience were more resolute in ordering Covid-19 vaccines and have been quicker in their vaccination rollouts. This is shown by a new study presented in ifo Schnelldienst. “These results show that countries that have weathered crises placed orders for vaccine sooner and thus administered more doses in the winter of 2021 than countries with less crisis experience ,” says Niklas Potrafke, co-author of the study and Director of the ifo Center for Public Finance and Political Economy.

Voters in Germany rewarded members of the Bundestag from the conservative parties the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party the Christian Social Union (CSU) who voted to make same-sex marriage legal. This is shown by a study on Germany’s 2017 federal election, which is published in ifo Schnelldienst on the fourth anniversary of “marriage for all.” “Our results show that the share of first, direct-candidate votes for MPs from the CDU and CSU who voted in favor of marriage for all was 1.29 percentage points higher than for CDU/CSU MPs who voted against it,” says Niklas Potrafke, co-author of the study and Director of the ifo Center for Public Finance and Political Economy. The eco-nomic situation in the voters’ local constituency played only a minor role in their assessment of the CDU/CSU candidates.

Many German economists believe that the supplementary income of members of the Bundestag poses a problem for the quality of the parliamentarians’ work; 68 percent of participants in the ifo and FAZ Economists Panel selected this answer. In individual responses, the economics professors at German-speaking universities pointed out that supplementary income could lead to conflicts of interest. At the same time, 62 percent of those surveyed considered the parliamentarians’ salary of around EUR 10,000 per month to be appropriate. This will decrease by 0.7 percent on July 1.

The next German federal government should focus on growth and economic recovery. At the same time, it must keep public debt under control, write ifo President Clemens Fuest and Prof. Niklas Potrafke, Director of the ifo Center for Public Finance, in an article for ifo Schnelldienst. “This calls for an expansion of public investment as well as improved tax conditions for private investment, innovation, and employment,” Fuest says. There is also a need to reexamine subsidies and government spending that are not geared toward public investment.

Almost half of participating economists are either “fairly dissatisfied” (27 percent) or “very dissatisfied” (20 percent) with Germany’s current coronavirus economic policy. This is a finding from the latest Economists Panel, a survey of economics professors at German universities by the ifo Institute and Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung. Another 30 percent of answers were “undecided.” About 20 percent said they are “fairly satisfied” with the coronavirus economic policy, while 2 percent are “very satisfied.” A total of 177 economists took part in the survey.

Des experts internationaux tablent sur un coup de pouce pour la croissance dans leurs pays respectifs après l'élection de Joe Biden. L'effet sur les attentes en matière de croissance se chiffre à 1,16 point de pourcentage pour 2021. C'est ce qui ressort d'une enquête de l'Institut ifo parmi 843 experts et expertes de 107 pays. « Après la pandémie actuelle et ses conséquences dramatiques, la présidence de Joe Biden pourrait, selon les personnes interrogées, constituer une lueur d'espoir pour l'évolution de l'économie mondiale au cours de l'année prochaine », écrivent Niklas Portrafke, le directeur du centre de recherches sur les finances publiques et l'économique politique au sein de l'Institut ifo, ainsi que ses trois co-auteurs et co-autrices dans un article pour la revue spécialisée ifo Schnelldienst. Les réponses provenant des États-Unis montrent cependant qu'aucun effet n'est attendu dans ce pays. L'effet global se monte par conséquent à +°0,98 point de pourcentage.

International experts expect the election of Joe Biden to boost economic growth in their countries. They expect the Democratic candidate’s win will add 1.16 percentage points on average to growth in 2021, according to an ifo Institute survey of 843 experts from 107 countries. “After the ongoing coronavirus crisis and its drastic effects, respondents say Biden’s presidency could be a ray of hope for global economic development in the coming year,” write Niklas Potrafke, Director of the ifo Center for Public Finance and Political Economy, and his three co-authors in an article for the journal ifo Schnelldienst. However, respondents in the US did not expect any change for their own country, making the overall effect plus 0.98 percentage points.

Economists expect that new US President Joe Biden will have a positive impact on the economy in Germany and in the EU. This is a finding from the Economists Panel, a survey of economics professors at German universities by the ifo Institute and Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung. Of the respondents, 71 percent rated a Biden presidency as “fairly positive,” and 5 percent rated it as “very positive” for the German economy. In contrast, 19 percent said his election would have “no impact.”

North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) is the German federal state that has approved the largest amount of coronavirus credits. The most populous state has approved credit authorizations amounting to 33 percent of its 2019 budget, equivalent to EUR 25 billion. It is followed by Bavaria with 31 percent (EUR 20 billion) and Lower Saxony with 27 percent (about EUR 9 billion). These findings are from an article by ifo researchers for ifo Schnelldienst 11/2020. “The volume of credit authorizations and the funds already drawn upon would seem to be a reaction to this extraordinary situation,” write ifo researchers Niklas Potrafke, Joachim Ragnitz, et al. „The debt brake has to be observed as soon as would be responsible, given the development of the business cycle.“

German economists fear that in the coronavirus crisis, the number of zombie companies will “tend to increase.” Of the economists surveyed by the ifo Institute, 66 percent share this concern. This is a key finding of the Economists Panel jointly put together by the ifo Institute and Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung. “Some of the state’s aid measures unfortunately have undesirable side effects,” says Niklas Potrafke, Director of the ifo Center for Public Finance and Political Economy. “They serve to artificially prolong the life of companies that lack a convincing business model.”

Der ifo-Forscher Niklas Potrafke hat den Koalitionsbeschluss zum Wahlrecht als „Reförmchen“ kritisiert. „In Wirklichkeit ist alles verschoben auf die Wahl im Jahre 2025“, sagte er. „Die Koalition scheint zu hoffen, dass wegen Corona die regierenden Parteien 2021 einen Bonus als Amtsinhaber bekommen und damit bessere Ergebnisse erzielen. Und dass damit das Problem der vielen Überhang- und Ausgleichsmandate gedämpft wird.“

Economists at German universities consider government intervention in the meat market to be necessary, especially stricter regulation of animal welfare. These are the findings of the ifo-FAZ Economists Panel. Of the 123 professors who took part, 85 percent are in favor of tougher animal welfare regulations in the meat industry, while 72 percent support worker protection rules.

Die zeitweise Senkung der Mehrwertsteuer wird die Wirtschaftsleistung in diesem Jahr um 0,2 Prozentpunkte oder 6,5 Milliarden Euro vergrößern. Das haben Berechnungen des ifo Instituts für seine neue Konjunkturprognose  ergeben, die ifo-Präsident Clemens Fuest am Montag im Haushaltsausschuss des Bundestages vortrug. Danach bedeutet die Senkung von 19 auf 16 Prozent vom 1. Juli bis zum Jahresende Steuerausfälle von 20 Milliarden Euro. 

German economists have praised the scale of the aid provided to the economy during the coronavirus crisis: 60 percent consider it appropriate to increase government spending by EUR 353 billion and issue additional guarantees worth EUR 820 billion. This is the result of the Economists Panel, a survey by the ifo Institute and Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung of around 120 economics professors at German universities which was conducted ahead of the new package. “This general praise goes hand in hand with criticism of the details of certain measures under discussion, such as the scrappage scheme,” says Niklas Potrafke from the ifo Center for Public Finance and Political Economy.

Public debt rules anchored in a country’s constitution, such as the German debt brake, go hand in hand with stronger economic growth. The ifo researchers Klaus Gruendler and Niklas Potrafke demonstrate this relationship in a new research paper. “Looking ahead to the time after the economic recovery, the question arises as to how we can bring high debt ratios back down again,” Gruendler and Potrafke write.

Die ifo-Forscher Klaus Gründler und Niklas Potrafke haben sich für eine Senkung der Neuverschuldung ausgesprochen, nachdem die Coronakrise überstanden ist. „Die expansive Politik ist gegenwärtig unbestritten. Nach Überstehen der Krise muss die Neuverschuldung allerdings  zurückgefahren und die Schuldenbremse eingehalten werden“, schrieben sie in einem Bericht für die Initiative Neue Soziale Marktwirtschaft.

Economists at German universities are in favor of the German government’s aid measures. These are the results of the ifo Economists Panel, a joint undertaking with FAZ, in which 155 professors took part. Two-thirds of the respondents considered the supplementary budget of EUR 156 billion to be appropriate. “At this point it’s becoming clear how important it was to have rejected calls for greater debt in recent years,” says Niklas Potrafke, Director of the ifo Center for Public Finance and Political Economy. “Now we really are in an emergency situation and have the means to respond appropriately.”

Germany should reduce its tax rates for companies. This is the opinion of the majority of economists surveyed for the ifo and Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung Economists Panel. Of the 104 economists surveyed, 53 percent agreed with the statement that Germany should follow the example of other countries and reduce corporate taxes. Just under a quarter of the respondents disagreed.

Les positions des États-Unis coïncident moins souvent avec celles de leurs alliés depuis que Donald Trump a pris ses fonctions à la Maison Blanche. Ce constat est le résultat de calculs réalisés par l'Institut ifo à partir de l'analyse du comportement de vote des États-Unis et de leurs alliés à l'Assemblée générale des Nations unies. 

Since US President Donald Trump took office, the US and its allies have reached consensus less often than before. This is the result of the ifo Institute’s calculations after studying the voting behavior of the US and its allies in the UN General Assembly. 

Das ifo Institut hat einen Vorschlag für die Reform des Wahlrechts zum Bundestag in die Debatte gebracht. „Damit könnten die vielen Überhang- und Ausgleichsmandate abgeschafft und ein hoher zweistelliger Millionenbetrag gespart werden“, erklären die ifo-Forscher Volker Meier und Niklas Potrafke. Bundestagspräsident Wolfgang Schäuble (CDU) strebt eine Reform noch im Januar an.

Many German economists are critical of the country’s new basic pension, which is designed to increase old-age pension provision and will, according to recent decisions, largely be financed by a financial transaction tax. This is the result of the current ifo and FAZ Economists Panel, a regular survey conducted by the ifo Institute, based in Munich, together with Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung among economics professors at German-speaking universities, in which 100 people participated.

The majority of economists at German-language universities continue to support the debt brake which limits new government borrowing. Even historically low interest rates and calls for higher investments in infrastructure and climate protection will not change this. This is shown by the latest ifo and FAZ Economists Panel, a regular survey of 120 economics professors.

Among German economists, the extension of CO2 emissions trading is the preferred policy for achieving climate targets. This is the result of the current ifo-FAZ Economists Panel, a survey of around 160 economics professors conducted by the ifo Institute in cooperation with Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung.

In the thirtieth year after the fall of the Berlin Wall, German economists no longer believe that East Germany will catch up any further economically. This is the result of the 23rd Economists' Panel of ifo and Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, in which 136 economics professors participated.

US President Donald Trump’s attempts to get the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates are likely to fail. For the period from 1972 to 2010, the ifo Institute examined how interest rates developed under right-wing and left-wing governments in industrialized countries. “The central banks do not seem to have bowed to the politicians,” says Niklas Potrafke, head of the ifo Center for Public Finance and Political Economy.

Les efforts du président américain pour obtenir de la Réserve fédérale qu’elle baisse ses taux d’intérêt resteront probablement vains. L’Institut ifo vient d’analyser l’évolution des taux d’intérêt dans les pays industrialisés entre 1972 et 2010 en fonction de l’orientation politique de leurs gouvernements, à gauche ou à droite. « Les banques centrales ne semblent pas avoir cédé aux demandes des acteurs politiques », a déclaré Niklas Potrafke, directeur du Centre des finances publiques et de l’économie politique de l’Institut ifo.

20.03.2019

According to ifo researcher Niklas Potrafke, women in developing countries have benefited from globalization. “One of the little-noticed consequences of globalization over the past 30 years has been how it has helped advance gender equality,” says Potrafke, Director of the ifo Center for Public Finance and Political Economy, on the occasion of International Women’s Day.

Pour le chercheur de l’Institut ifo de Munich, Niklas Potrafke, les femmes des pays en développement ont tiré avantage de la mondialisation. « Les progrès accomplis en matière d’égalité des sexes dans les 30 dernières années constituent l’une des conséquences de la mondialisation encore sous-évaluée », déclare à l’occasion de la Journée internationale des droits des femmes Niklas Potrafke, directeur du Centre pour les finances publiques et l’économie politique de l’Institut ifo.

German professors of economics are deeply sceptical about the coal exit for the country. Only 27 percent of them believe that the German phase-out can reduce carbon dioxide emissions in Europe, 42 percent of the respondents say that this is not the case, as can be seen from the ifo economists' panel, which is being set up in cooperation with the FAZ.

Some European NATO countries such as Romania, Latvia and Lithuania will soon spend two percent of their economic output on the military. "The United Kingdom has been meeting the two percent target for years, and France is on the right track with 1.8 percent," said Niklas Potrafke, head of the ifo Centre for Public Finance and Political Economy at the launch of the Munich Security Conference.

Certains pays européens de l'OTAN comme la Roumanie, la Lettonie et la Lituanie consacreront bientôt deux pour cent de leur production économique à l'armée. "Le Royaume-Uni atteint l'objectif de 2 % depuis des années et la France est sur la bonne voie avec 1,8 % ", a déclaré Niklas Potrafke, directeur du Centre des finances publiques et de l'économie politique de l'ifo lors du lancement de la conférence de Munich sur la sécurité.

Les changements de gouvernement ont un impact négatif sur le respect des accords internationaux non contraignants. C'est le résultat de recherches récentes de l'Institut ifo à Munich. "Nous avons examiné comment les changements de gouvernement ont affecté l'objectif convenu par les États de l'OTAN en 2014 d'augmenter les dépenses militaires à 2 pour cent de la production économique annuelle d'ici 2024. Sans changement de gouvernement, le taux de croissance moyen des dépenses de défense était de 6,1 pour cent. Dans les pays où le changement de gouvernement a été faible, les dépenses n'ont augmenté que de 3,8 pour cent et dans les pays où le changement de gouvernement a été important, de 0,9 pour cent seulement ", explique Niklas Potrafke, directeur du Centre des finances publiques et de l'économie politique de l'Institut ifo. "Des applications intéressantes de notre méthode sont également susceptibles d'émerger pour d'autres domaines politiques tels que la politique climatique."

Changes of government have a negative impact on compliance with non-binding international agreements. This is the result of recent research by the ifo Institute in Munich. "We have examined how changes in government have affected the 2014 Nato states' agreed goal of increasing military spending to two percent of annual economic output by 2024. Without a change in government, the average growth rate of defence spending was 6.1 percent. In countries with a small change of government, spending increased by only 3.8 percent and in countries with a large change of government by only 0.9 percent," says Niklas Potrafke, head of the ifo Center for Public Finance and Political Economy. "Interesting applications of our method are also likely to emerge for other policy areas such as climate policy."

Niklas Potrafke erklärt, dass die Gründe für den Erfolg radikaler Parteien in den ostdeutschen Bundesländern auf die sozialistische Sozialisierung und das totalitäre Regime der DDR zurückzuführen sind. 

Investitionen in die Zukunft dürfen nicht über Schulden finanziert werden. Die Schuldenbremse mahnt die Politik, sorgfältig zu prüfen, wozu öffentliche Mittel verwendet werden sollen, erklärt Niklas Potrafke.

Mit dem „Inflation Reduction Act“ (IRA) soll primär die amerikanische Wirtschaft geschützt werden. Aber der IRA wird auch Auswirkungen auf die Handelspartner der USA haben. Es wird befürchtet, dass dadurch Importe aus Europa benachteiligt werden und europäische Unternehmen in die Vereinigten Staaten abwandern könnten. Niklas Potrafke erläutert, wie die europäischen Regierungen auf den IRA regieren sollten.

In einer aktuellen Studie schätzen Lena Dräger, Klaus Gründler und Niklas Potrafke den Effekt des Ukrainekrieges auf die Inflationserwartungen deutscher Volkswirtschaftsprofessoren und erforschen die Ursachen für die gegenwärtig hohen Inflationsraten. 

Clemens Fuest, Klaus Gründler, Niklas Potrafke, Fabian Ruthardt stellen in einer Untersuchung heraus, dass Politiker die Steuern häufiger direkt nach Wahlen als in anderen Jahren erhöhen. Das zeigen Daten aus 22 Ländern über fünf Jahrzehnte.

Niklas Potrafke und Stefan Korioth warnen, dass der Koalitionsvertrag die Finanzierung vieler geplanter Vorhaben offen lässt und befürchten, dass dies vor allem durch Umgehen der Schuldenbremse mit neuen Schulden geschehen soll.

Björn Kauder und Niklas Potrafke erklären die Unterschiede in der Beurteilung von Immigration zwischen im Osten und im Westen sozialisierten Studenten.

Die neue Ampel-Koalition steht vor gewaltigen Herausforderungen wie zum Beispiel Investitionen in Klimaschutz und Digitalisierung sowie das Problem der Überalterung unserer Gesellschaft. Wie das ohne neue Schulden gelingen kann, beschreibt Niklas Potrafke.

Niklas Potrafke erklärt, warum es mit dem demografischen Wandel auch nicht bei der Rente mit 67 bleiben kann.

Niklas Potrafke fordert für Deutschland nach der Coronakrise wieder ausgeglichene Haushalte und ein Einhalten der Schuldenbremse.