Economic Experts Survey: Experts Worldwide Call for Significant Relaxation of Covid-19 Health Measures (Q1 2022)
Due to the Omicron variant, the Covid-19 pandemic regained momentum in the first quarter of 2022 in many countries, leading to significant restrictions on economic activity. Nevertheless, participants in the Economic Experts Survey (EES) see a significant quarter-on-quarter improvement in global Covid-19 health measures and call for relaxing restrictions.
The map shows the regional mean response to the question, “How do you rate your country’s current Covid-19 public health measures?” The experts were asked for a comparison to the previous quarter, with the possible answers ranging from −100 (“worse”) to +100 (“better”). The data was averaged first at the country level and then within 18 world regions.
Covid-19 Health Measures Significantly Improved with Few Exceptions
Overall, the assessments of the current Covid-19 health measures are very positive. Participants in Asia and Oceania are consistently positive in how they rate the change in measures compared to the previous quarter. Northern, Western, and Southern Europe also expect a slight to noticeable improvement compared with the previous quarter. In Eastern Europe, on the other hand, participants assess the current Covid-19 health measures more negatively than they did at the end of 2021. While the current measures in North and South America are assessed more positively than in Q4 2021, the experts in Central America observe a slight deterioration. Apart from Central and Southern Africa, the current Covid-19 health measures throughout the African regions are assessed more positively than at the end of 2021.
The figure shows the regional mean of the questions “How do you rate your country’s current Covid-19 public health measures?” (left panel) and “How would you change your country’s current Covid-19 public health measures?” (right panel). Experts were asked for a comparison to the previous quarter, with the possible answers ranging from −100 (“worse”) to +100 (“better”) and from −100 (“stricter”) to +100 (“looser”). The data is first averaged at the country level and then within 18 world regions.
Call for Further Relaxation of Covid-19 Health Measures
On a global average, experts are calling for relaxing the current Covid-19 health measures. In only four out of 18 regions a slight tightening is recommended. In all regions where participants perceive a positive development of Covid-19 health measures, they also prefer laxer Covid-19 health measures (except for East Africa). The call for further relaxing measures is particularly strong in Asia and Oceania, as well as in Europe. In the Americas, preferences are not as clear: while experts in North and South America have a slight preference for relaxations, more restrictive health measures are preferred in Central America. There is similar heterogeneity in Africa: North and West Africa want to relax restrictions, while Central and East Africa as well as Southern Africa are more cautious and prefer slightly more restrictive health measures.
The map shows the regional mean response to the question: “How do you rate your country’s current fiscal policies to address the economic consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic?” Experts were asked to provide a comparison to the previous quarter, with the possible answers ranging from −100 (“worse”) to +100 (“better”). The data is averaged first at the country level and then within 18 world regions.
Large Regional Differences in the Assessment of Covid-19 Fiscal Policies
The experts’ assessment of fiscal policy in response to the Covid-19 pandemic varies considerably from region to region in a quarterly comparison. In North America, fiscal policy is rated slightly better; in Central and South America, fiscal policy is rated worse. In Northern, Western, and Southern Europe, experts observe improvements; in Eastern Europe, the situation has deteriorated. In Africa, Central Africa stands out with a clear deterioration; in North Africa and Southern Africa, the values are slightly negative, and in West and East Africa even positive. In Asia, fiscal policy in response to the Covid-19 pandemic is assessed more positively compared with Q4 2021, (except for South Asia). In Oceania, participants assess fiscal policy slightly more negatively than at the end of 2021.
The figure shows the regional mean of the questions “How do you rate your country’s current fiscal policies to address the economic consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic?” (left panel) and “How would you change your country’s current fiscal policies to address the economic consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic?” (right panel). Experts were asked for a comparison with the previous quarter, with the possible answers ranging from −100 (“worse”) to +100 (“better”) or from −100 (“more restrictive”) to +100 (“more expansionary”). The data is first averaged at the country level and then within 18 world regions.
Calls for More Expansive Covid-19 Fiscal Policies
The assessments of fiscal policy in response to the Covid-19 pandemic do not show a clear global trend for Q1 2022. This is different for the recommended change in fiscal policy: experts favor substantial expansions. In Asia, Africa (except for Central Africa), and Central and South America, they call for more expansionary fiscal policy. In Northern, Eastern, and Western Europe and Oceania, there are only slight preferences for either a more expansionary or a more restrictive fiscal policy. In North America, participants are in favor of a reduction in government spending.
The Economic Experts Survey (EES) is a quarterly survey conducted by the ifo Institute and the Swiss Economic Policy Institute. A total of 1,603 economic experts from 132 countries participated in the survey from February 16 to March 2, 2022.
