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Business Climate for Solo Self-Employed Persons and Microenterprises in Germany Darkens Significantly
In Germany, the business climate for solo self-employed persons and microenterprises darkened significantly in November. This is evidenced by the ifo Institute’s new index for this segment of the economy. The index score was minus 6.2 points, following minus 0.5 points in October. This is significantly worse than the score for the economy as a whole, which stood at plus 11.0. “Microenterprises have been hit much harder by the fourth wave of the pandemic than large enterprises,” says Klaus Wohlrabe, Head of Surveys at ifo.
Institut ifo : les groupes pétroliers répercutent 85 à 100 % de la remise fiscale sur les carburants en Allemagne
En Allemagne, la majeure partie de la remise fiscale sur les carburants a bénéficié aux clientes et clients finaux. Ce constat est le résultat des calculs réalisés par l'Institut ifo. « Dans le cas du gazole, les stations d'essence ont répercuté 100 % de la remise fiscale, soit 17 centimes d'euro par litre. Concernant l'essence super, cette part est de 29 à 30 centimes d'euro sur 35 centimes au total, soit de 85 % », précise Florian Neumeier de l'Institut ifo, qui a réalisé les calculs nécessaires en collaboration avec Daniel Stöhlker et Clemens Fuest, président de l'Institut ifo.
Le président de l'Institut ifo, Clemens Fuest, soutient l'imposition minimale des sociétés à l'échelon international
Le Président de l'Institut ifo, Clemens Fuest, soutient le concept de l'OCDE d’une imposition minimale des sociétés au niveau international. « Cette mesure limiterait l'évitement fiscal indésirable qui résulte du fait que les entreprises peuvent transférer leurs bénéfices d’un pays à l’autre. Dans le même temps, une double imposition doit être évitée », souligne M. Fuest dans un article rédigé avec ses coauteurs Mathieu Parenti et Farid Toubal pour le Conseil d'analyse économique auprès du Premier ministre français Edouard Philippe.
ifo Researcher Pittel Praises Expert Opinion on Climate Policy
The ifo researcher Karen Pittel praised the special report of the German Council of Economic Experts (SVR) on climate policy. "It is good that the SVR is urging the introduction of an internationally coordinated CO2 price. It is equally important to note that in an emergency it is better for national governments to go it alone than to do nothing," said the head of the ifo Centre for Energy, Climate and Resources in Munich on Friday.
ifo Economists Panel: Lowest Growth and Inequality expected under a Left-Wing Alliance
In the opinion of 83 percent of responding economists, a coalition of the SPD, the Greens, and the Left Party would deliver the lowest growth rate of all plausible alliances following Germany’s upcoming election. “According to 44 percent of participants, the highest growth would be achieved by a Black/Yellow coalition – but this grouping of the CDU/CSU and FDP lacks a majority according to current polls,” says ifo researcher Niklas Potrafke. Meanwhile, 38 percent of participants believe carbon emissions would be reduced the most under an SPD/Green coalition, which currently also lacks a majority. These are findings from the latest Economists Panel, a survey of economics professors at German universities by the ifo Institute and Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung.
Expert Group Advocates a Step-by-step Plan for after the Shutdown
An interdisciplinary group of renowned scientists is now calling for the current restrictions in society and the economy to be gradually eased, while ensuring medical care for the entire population. In their position paper, the researchers led by ifo President Clemens Fuest and Martin Lohse, president of the Society of German Natural Scientists and Physicians (GDNÄ), outline ways to achieve this goal.
Une réassurance-chômage européenne pourrait absorber jusqu'à 25 pour cent des pertes de salaires causées par l’augmentation for chômage en période de récession
Un système européen de réassurance-chômage pourrait absorber en moyenne 15 à 25 pour cent des pertes de salaires causées par l'augmentation du chômage dans les récessions profondes, mais divers arrangements devraient être pris afin d'éviter des effets incitatifs négatifs, selon une nouvelle étude d'EconPol Europe, écrit par Mathias Dolls, chercheur à l'Institut ifo.
European Residential Construction Pushes Sector into the Red
By 2026, Europe will have finished building only about 1.5 million housing units (down 13% on 2023). For Germany, that means an expected decline of 35%. This is evident from projections by the EUROCONSTRUCT forecasting network, of which the ifo Institute is a member. “Due in particular to the sharp rise in construction and financing costs, it’s often no longer possible to build new homes in Germany. Politicians haven’t yet made a decisive improvement to the policy framework,” says ifo construction expert Ludwig Dorffmeister. “The resulting decline in the number of permits doesn’t bode well for the coming years.”
Institut ifo : recul du chômage partiel en mars en Allemagne
Le nombre des chômeurs partiels en Allemagne a baissé au cours du mois de mars. Selon les éstimations des chercheurs de l'Institut ifo, le nombre des salariés en chômage partiel a chuté à 2,7 millions, après 2,9 millions (*) en février 2021. Le nombre des chômeurs partiels correspond ainsi à 8,0 % des employés assujettis aux cotisations obligatoires de l'assurance sociale, contre 8,7 % au mois de février. « Ce recul est intervenu dans presque tous les secteurs économiques et notamment dans l'industrie. L'aménagement prudent de certaines mesures anti-Covid a conduit à une diminution du nombre des chômeurs partiels même dans le commerce, l'hôtellerie et la restauration. Cela étant, la part des chômeurs partiels dans l'hôtellerie et la restauration est toujours de 50,8 % ; elle reste donc très, très élevée », constate Sebastian Link, le spécialiste du marché de l'emploi au sein de l'Institut ifo.
Majority of German Companies See Same Productivity from Working in the Office or from Home
Most German companies expect productivity to remain the same should their employees return from hybrid working to working solely in the office: 60.1% believe that employee productivity will remain the same in this case; 31.6% think it will increase with full office use; only 8.3% predict that employees would then work less productively. “The majority’s positive experience with productivity is an important reason why working from home has become established in many German companies”, says ifo researcher Mathias Dolls.
Meta Survey for the ifo Business Survey in Trade (2009)
10.7805/ebdc-ms-ibs-tra-2009
German Companies Stick With Their Global Supply Chains
Despite the coronavirus pandemic, only a few companies in Germany have turned to new national supply chains and are looking to replace global procurement. This is the finding of an ifo study for the Konrad Adenauer Foundation. Of the 5,000 companies surveyed, only one in ten intends to rely more heavily on domestic supply chains in the future.
European Cooperation Can Reduce Costs of Climate Action by EUR 248 Billion by 2050
Joint energy and climate action policy in the EU could save European countries EUR 248 billion between 2024 and 2050, with Germany alone saving EUR 66 billion. This is according to a study conducted by the ifo Institute in Munich on behalf of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry for Munich and Upper Bavaria to calculate the cost of making Europe climate neutral by 2050. “Having every country in Europe pursue energy climate action policy alone leads to huge additional costs. Joint climate action is always better than national climate action,” says Mathias Mier, ifo researcher and author of the study.
Institut ifo : Légère amélioration de l’indice ifo des exportations allemandes
Le moral des entreprises exportatrices d’Allemagne s’est amélioré. L’indice ifo des prévisions en matière d’exportations est passé de – 6,3 points en octobre à – 3,8 points en novembre. « Les entreprises exportatrices peinent toutefois à développer une dynamique », explique Klaus Wohlrabe, directeur des enquêtes de l’Institut ifo. « Elles ne participent pas encore substantiellement à la reprise économique dans de nombreux pays. »
German Gas Price Brake Will Be Much Cheaper than Expected
Germany’s gas price brake will cost the country much less than expected. Last winter, the German government had earmarked EUR 40.3 billion for it in the Economic Stabilization Fund. According to the latest estimate by the ifo Institute, it will actually cost only EUR 13.1 billion – one-third of the original sum.
ifo Institute: German Automotive Industry Slowly Starts Up Again
The German automotive industry hopes to see a slow recovery in the coming months. This is the finding of the ifo Institute’s latest Business Survey. Business expectations have taken a clear positive turn for the first time in seven months. The expectations indicator rose from minus 11.9 points in May to plus 27.7 points in June.
Tap More Energy Sources for Power Generation
A group of authors led by ifo President Clemens Fuest proposes using as many energy sources as possible for Germany’s electricity supply. “We need to massively accelerate the expansion of renewables as well as the construction of gas-fired power plants that can later run on hydrogen. Nuclear power plants should not be shut down until other power plants that emit no CO2 are ready,” write Fuest, his predecessor Hans-Werner Sinn, entrepreneurs Christoph Theis and Roland Berger, and ifo Administrative Council Chairperson Peter-Alexander Wacker in an essay published in ifo Schnelldienst.
ifo Business Survey Industry (2017b)
10.7805/ebdc-ibs-ind-2017b
Shortage of Materials in Germany Worsens Following the Attack on Ukraine
The shortage of materials in German manufacturing has become more severe. In March, 80.2 percent of companies complained about bottlenecks and problems procuring intermediate products and raw materials. In February, the figure was 74.6 percent. This is the finding of an ifo Institute survey.
ifo Business Survey Industry (2020a)
10.7805/ebdc-ibs-ind-2020a