Team
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Institut ifo : l'industrie automobile allemande se prépare à des temps difficiles
L'industrie automobile allemande se prépare de nouveau à des mois difficiles. C'est ce qui ressort de la toute dernière enquête conjoncturelle de l'Institut ifo. Selon cette dernière, l'indice de la demande dans ce secteur a régressé, passant de − 2,1 points en janvier à − 11,8 points en février. Les attentes en matière d'exportations ont également baissé, passant de − 5,2 points en janvier à − 15,4 points en février. La situation des employés du secteur devient particulièrement difficile : l'indice lié à la planification du personnel s'est affaissé, passant en effet de − 31,9 points en janvier à − 41,8 points en février.
Economists See Ray of Hope for Political Situation in Almost All Regions of the World
The assessment of the political situation improved worldwide in the second quarter of 2022, finds the latest Economic Experts Survey (EES) – a global quarterly survey conducted by the ifo Institute and the Swiss Economic Policy Institute – which this time had 1,795 participants from 127 countries. At plus 10 points, they assessed political stability worldwide as significantly better than in the previous quarter. “Despite energy and food crises, even worse fears from the war in Ukraine have fortunately failed to materialize,” says ifo researcher Niklas Potrafke. “At least the fighting has remained regional.”
Mentoring Program Improves Labor-Market Prospects of Highly Disadvantaged Adolescents in Germany
The labor-market prospects of German adolescents from highly disadvantaged backgrounds improve substantially when these students are given mentoring. This is the conclusion of a new ifo study, which was presented in Munich on Wednesday. “For these adolescents, the projected income effects exceed the costs of the mentoring program many times over,” says Ludger Wößmann, Director of the ifo Center for the Economics of Education.
ifo Investment Database (2018)
10.7805/ebdc-iidb-2018
ifo Institut: Mehr Ehrenamt und weniger Populismus bei lokalen Wurzeln
Bürger, die sich mit ihrer lokalen Gemeinde stark verbunden fühlen, gehen im Durchschnitt häufiger zur Kommunalwahl, interessieren sich stärker für Politik, wählen seltener populistische Parteien und engagieren sich häufiger ehrenamtlich. Dies ist das Ergebnis einer Studie des ifo Instituts Dresden im Auftrag der Friedrich-Naumann-Stiftung für die Freiheit.
Working from Home Could Reduce Office Space Requirements in Germany by 12%
Working from home reduces the need for office space in Germany. This is the result of a new study conducted by the ifo Institute together with real estate consultancy Colliers for the major cities of Berlin, Hamburg, Munich, Cologne, Frankfurt am Main, Stuttgart, and Düsseldorf. “Regular working from home has become the new normal for around 25% of employees and 69% of companies. This is leading to a decline in demand for office space, particularly among large companies and in industries where working from home is more commonplace. By 2030, it’s likely that the need for office space will have decreased by 12%. This would correspond to a drop in demand of around 11.5 million square meters in the seven major cities. The new world of work is triggering structural change in the office market,” says ifo researcher Simon Krause, coauthor of the study.
Economists Recommend Worldwide Easing of Coronavirus Restrictions
Coronavirus health measures have improved significantly during the first quarter of 2022, according to a survey of experts. On average, assessments were up 10 points compared to the previous quarter. Moreover, the respondents favored a further easing of restrictions. These are among the findings of the latest Economic Experts Survey (EES) – a global quarterly survey conducted by the ifo Institute and the Swiss Economic Policy Institute – which this time had 1,603 participants from 132 countries. “While protecting public health has been the priority during the pandemic, the economic cost of the coronavirus has been high,” says ifo researcher Niklas Potrafke. “The relatively mild effects of the Omicron variant mean that restrictions can now be eased considerably.”
ifo Business Survey Trade (2016a)
10.7805/ebdc-ibs-tra-2016a
ifo Business Climate Index Rises (February 2023)
Sentiment has improved among German business leaders. The ifo Business Climate Index rose to 91.1 points in February, up from 90.1 points in January. Expectations in particular were brighter. However, assessments of the current situation were slightly less good. The German economy is gradually working its way out of a period of weakness.
Clemens Fuest, président de l'Institut ifo : la Cour constitutionnelle allemande augmente la pression sur les gouvernements des pays de la zone euro
Le jugement de la cour constitutionnelle allemande réduit la marge de manœuvre de la Banque centrale européenne en matière d'achats obligataires en soutien aux pays membres hautement endettés de la zone euro, estime Clemens Fuest, président de l'Institut ifo. « Il en résulte une pression accrue sur les gouvernements des pays membres de la zone euro pour qu'ils adoptent des mesures de soutien via leur propre politique fiscale, plutôt que de se reposer sur la BCE », a indiqué M. Fuest ce mardi à Munich.
Pensions Must Rise More Slowly than Wages in Germany
Pension increases should be decoupled from wage development. This is what ifo researcher Joachim Ragnitz calls for in an article in ifo Dresden berichtet. “Ensuring that pensions rise more slowly than wages is the only way to spare the coffers and not overburden tax and contribution payers. With many baby boomers soon to retire, the political decisions of recent years will result in a gigantic financial hole opening up.” He adds that an additional 2.6 percent of economic output will have to be spent on pensions by 2050.
Direct Election of District Councillors Reduces Unemployment More Effectively
Long-term unemployment is falling more sharply in districts where the councillor is elected directly.
ifo Investment Survey Industry (2014)
10.7805/ebdc-ivs-ind-2014
Restrictions for the Unvaccinated Increase Vaccine Willingness
Tighter Covid-19 restrictions for the unvaccinated go hand in hand with greater willingness to get the shot. That is the finding of an ifo study on vaccine willingness in the German-Austrian border region. “The announcement of a 2G rule (exemption from restrictions solely for those who are vaccinated or have recovered) in Austria on November 5 led to a rise in the vaccination rate,” says Andreas Peichl, Director of the ifo Center for Macroeconomics and Surveys and co-author of the study.
EU Should Demonstrate Unity toward China
The ifo Institute has called for a show of unity toward China. In recent years, the trade imbalance between Germany and China has tipped significantly in China’s favor, but the same is not true for EU-China trade relations, according to an ifo study. “For this reason, it is questionable whether Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s trip to China will on its own be enough to send the right message. It would have been a good opportunity to demonstrate European unity to Beijing,” says Lisandra Flach, Director of the ifo Center for International Economics.
Purchasing power returns ‒ political uncertainty high
According to the Joint Economic Forecast, Germany's gross domestic product declines by 0.6% in 2023. This is a strong downward revision of 0.9 percentage points from the forecast made in spring 2023. "The most important reason for this revision is that industry and private consumption are recovering more slowly than we expected in spring," says Oliver Holtemöller, Vice President and Head of the Macroeconomics Department at the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
More German Jobs Lost to Shrinking Output of Combustion Engines than Employees Retiring
In the coming years, the number of German automotive jobs eliminated as the output of combustion engines shrinks will be higher than the number of employees retiring from the industry. This is the finding of a study conducted by the ifo Institute on behalf of the German Association of the Automotive Industry (VDA).
ifo Institute: Public Discussion Drives Policy Responses to Pandemic
The more the pandemic was publicly discussed, the faster politicians responded with measures. These are the conclusions of a study by the CESifo research network. The differences in response time are considerable: Switzerland introduced measures against the virus fastest, three days after the first cases of Covid-19 were reported. In Ireland, the delay was eight days, in South Korea 11 days. Among the slowest countries to respond were the US (34 days), Belgium (35 days), and the UK (45 days).
Trade in Clothing and Home Appliances Migrates to the Internet
German consumers are increasingly getting used to buying clothing, household goods, and home appliances online. This is a finding of a recent evaluation by the ifo-N26-Economic Monitor. The researchers compared offline and online purchases in 2020–2021 to the pre-pandemic situation. When stores began reopening in summer 2020, the ratio of offline to online trade almost returned to pre-crisis levels. Since then, online sales have grown nearly continuously, reaching 250 percent of pre-crisis levels for household appliances at the beginning of December and as much as 350 percent in February.
ifo President Fuest Favors Moderate and Nuanced Civil Service Wage Increases in Germany
The ifo President Clemens Fuest has spoken out in favor of “moderate wage increases” in the German public sector. “There are stronger arguments for a moderate wage round than for a big increase,” he said in Munich on Monday. “The adjustment should be nuanced. In areas where the civil service has difficulty in attracting qualified staff, it makes sense to have more scope for better pay.”