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Business Expectations in Germany’s Chemical Industry Brighten Further
The ifo Business Climate in Germany’s chemical industry brightened in April. It rose to minus 3.1 points, up from minus 10.5 points* in March, according to the ifo Institute survey. There was a particular improvement in business expectations, with that indicator rising to 13.3 points – its highest level since December 2021. However, the majority of companies surveyed described their current situation as poor. “The chemical industry is deriving confidence from the easing in supply bottlenecks and lower energy prices. But this industry’s current order situation remains weak,” says industry expert Anna Wolf of the ifo Institute.
ifo Export Expectations Rose Considerably (May 2020)
After a catastrophic April, sentiment among German exporters has recovered somewhat. In May, the ifo Export Expectations for manufacturing rose from minus 50.2 points to minus 26.9 points. Although this sharp increase is unprecedented, companies are still far from optimistic. However, the German export industry does see a silver lining on the horizon.
Material Shortages Ease in German Manufacturing
The shortage of materials in German manufacturing has eased somewhat. In August, 62 percent of the companies surveyed reported problems, compared with 73.3 percent in July. The August figure is the lowest in over a year. This is a finding from the ifo Institute’s latest survey.
ifo Architects Survey (2016)
10.7805/ebdc-ias-2016
Business Climate in the German Automotive Industry on the Upswing
The business climate in Germany’s automotive industry brightened in March. The indicator rose to -5.8 points, up from -9.9 points* in February. “The German automotive industry seems to have finally emerged from its economic low in the second half of 2023 and is looking to the future with more confidence,” says Anita Wölfl, a specialist at the ifo Center for Industrial Organization and New Technologies.
A Massive Drop in Short-Time Work in Germany
In April, the number of short-time workers in Germany took a massive drop: 426,000 people were on short-time work, down from 696,000* in March. This corresponds to 1.3 percent of the workforce, down from 2.1 percent*. These figures are ifo Institute estimates based on its surveys as well as on data from the German Federal Employment Agency. “The most significant declines were again in the contact-intensive industries, which are still recovering from the pandemic,” says ifo expert Stefan Sauer. “In the hospitality industry, the number fell by more than half, while there was also a significant decline in the transport sector. And numbers decreased even in manufacturing, despite the supply shortages.”
Allemagne : Montée des prévisions en matière d'exportations recueillies par l'Institut ifo
Le moral des exportateurs allemands s'est considérablement amélioré. Les prévisions communiquées par l'industrie à l'Institut ifo en matière d'exportations ont progressé au mois de décembre de – 1,6 à + 2,6 points. C'est le niveau le plus élevé depuis le mois de février. L'apaisement qui se dessine dans le conflit commercial entre les États-Unis et la Chine a suscité un optimisme prudent parmi les exportateurs allemands. De même, les élections législatives au Royaume-Uni ont légèrement clarifié la situation.
Weak Class Level Affects Immigrant Children’s Performance
Immigrant children’s academic performance suffers particularly when their class at school has a large number of low performers. This applies to pupils who come from a disadvantaged background, have a lower level of academic achievement, do not speak the local language at home, or whose parents were both born abroad. These are findings of researchers from the ifo Institute and the University of Milano-Bicocca based on data from Italy.
EBDC Business Expectations Panel (2018)
10.7805/ebdc-bep-2018
Majority of Germans in Favor of Deferred Tuition Fees
A majority of Germans are in favor of deferring tuition fees and basing them on income, finds a new study by the ifo Institute. “More than 60 percent are in favor of charging tuition fees only after graduation and only if the graduate’s income is above a certain threshold,” says ifo researcher Ludger Wößmann. “In contrast, a slim majority opposes regular tuition fees.”
ifo Business Climate in Eastern Germany Declines Significantly (July 2021)
Sentiment among companies in eastern Germany cooled significantly in July. The ifo Business Climate Index for the entire regional economy fell to 101.4 points, down from 102.6 points in June. Compared to the previous month, companies’ assessments of the current situation jumped even as their expectations plummeted.
Material Shortages Decrease in German Manufacturing
Material shortages have decreased in German manufacturing. In January, 48.4 percent of the companies surveyed reported problems. In December, that figure was 50.7 percent. This is a finding of the ifo Institute’s latest survey. “Given the mild winter recession that’s emerging, we would’ve liked to see a stronger decline,” says Klaus Wohlrabe, Head of Surveys at ifo. “Many companies are only slowly managing to work through their high order backlogs.”
Business Climate for Germany’s Self-Employed Brightens
The business climate for Germany’s self-employed has brightened considerably, finds the latest ifo survey for this segment (“Jimdo-ifo Business Climate Index for the Self-Employed”). In September, the index rose to -14.4 points*, up from -19.9 points* in August. “The country’s self-employed appear to be recovering from their economic low point,” explains ifo expert Katrin Demmelhuber. “Whether this improvement will last will become clear over the next few months.”
Une guerre douanière élargie causerait des dommages considérables à la Chine et aux Etats-Unis
Une guerre douanière élargie causerait des dommages considérables à la Chine et aux États-Unis. Les exportations chinoises vers les États-Unis pourraient chuter de 171,3 milliards d'euros, les exportations américaines vers la Chine de 51 milliards d‘euros si les deux parties imposaient des droits de douane de 25 pourcent sur tous les produits. C'est le résultat d'une nouvelle étude des chercheurs de l'Institut ifo Gabriel Felbermayr et Marina Steininger pour le réseau de recherche EconPol Europe. Les négociations entre les deux pays devraient être terminées d'ici le vendredi 1er mars. "La Chine perdrait beaucoup plus en termes absolus et relatifs que les Etats-Unis", disent Felbermayr et Steininger. 25 pour cent des droits de douane réduiraient la production économique américaine de 9,5 milliards d'euros, de la Chine même de 30,4 milliards d'euros.
ifo Business Survey Industry (2020a)
10.7805/ebdc-ibs-ind-2020a
Institut ifo : augmentation sensible de l'épargne des consommateurs urbains en 2020
Au cours de l'année 2020 marquée par la pandémie de Covid-19, l'épargne des consommateurs vivant en milieu urbain s'est accrue de manière significative dans plusieurs pays européens. C'est l'un des résultats principaux de la première étude réalisée conjointement par l'Institut ifo et l'Université technique de Munich en collaboration avec la banque numérique N26. Par rapport à janvier 2020, les dépôts des clients ont augmenté d'environ 20 points de pourcentage lors du premier confinement et de 20 points supplémentaires lors du deuxième confinement, indique cette étude et conclut à une accumulation massive de pouvoir d'achat en France, Allemagne, Autriche, Italie et Espagne.
Companies Face More Difficulties Obtaining Credit in Germany
It is becoming more difficult for companies in Germany to obtain new loans. Currently, 24.3 percent of companies in ongoing credit negotiations report restraint on the part of banks – the highest proportion since 2017. This is a finding of surveys by the ifo Institute. “The difficult economic climate is currently making banks more cautious,” says Klaus Wohlrabe, Head of Surveys at ifo.
Institut ifo/EconPol : les Français travaillent en moyenne 0,6 jour par semaine depuis leur domicile
Avec une moyenne de 0,6 jour par semaine, la France se classe parmi les nations les moins adeptes du télétravail en Europe. Elle partage ce choix avec l'Italie (également 0,6 jour par semaine). Les salariés allemands et britanniques sont davantage enclins à travailler depuis chez eux (1,0 et 1,5 jour respectivement). Le Canada mène le peloton des pays occidentaux comptant les télétravailleurs les plus assidus (1,7 jour). Aux États-Unis, les salariés travaillent depuis leur domicile en moyenne 1,4 jour par semaine. C'est ce qui ressort d'une enquête de l'Institut ifo réalisée auprès d'employés à temps plein dans 34 pays.
ifo President Fuest: ECB Interest Rate Cut is Good – Further Cuts Could Be a Long Time Coming
ifo President Clemens Fuest welcomes the interest rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB). “The move makes sense, because inflation in Europe is now heading back toward the target of two percent,” he said in Munich on Thursday. “However, this interest rate cut has already been priced in on the markets, so the stimulus for the economy will be limited. In view of significant rises in wages and postponed interest rate cuts in the US, it is rather doubtful that further interest rate cuts will follow soon.”
ifo Institute: Investments in Economic Stimulus Packages Should Take Climate Protection into Account
Europe should continue to pursue its climate targets, even during the coronavirus crisis, write ifo researcher Karen Pittel and Andreas Loeschel from the University of Muenster. “Current investments are making emissions an unavoidable part of many sectors for decades to come,” they write in their article published in the new ifo Schnelldienst. Prof. Pittel is Director of the ifo Center for Energy, Climate, and Resources; Prof. Loeschel is teaching at the University of Muenster.