Team
The people behind the ifo Institute offer the very high level of expertise and experience needed to fulfill our research and service mandate.
ifo Business Climate Index Collapses (preliminary assessment 19 March 2020)
Sentiment among German managers has worsened drastically. The preliminary ifo Business Climate Index plummeted from 96.0 points (seasonally adjusted) in February to 87.7 points in March. This marks the biggest drop since 1991 and brings the index to its lowest level since August 2009. Companies’ expectations in particular have darkened as never before. Assessments of the current situation have also worsened considerably. The German economy is speeding into recession.
Germany: Economy Cools Further – Industry in Recession
Germany’s leading economics research institutes have revised their economic forecast for Germany significantly downward. Whereas in the spring they still expected gross domestic product to grow by 0.8 percent in 2019, they now expect GDP growth to be only 0.5 percent.
Business Climate in the Retail Sector Deteriorates in June
The ifo Business Climate in Germany’s retail deteriorated in June, finds the latest ifo Institute surveys. The indicator fell to -19.5 points from -13.3* points in May. Retailers assessed their current business situation as poorer. Their expectations for the coming months have clouded over considerably. “Many retailers cannot be satisfied with how business trended in the first half of 2024,” says ifo expert Patrick Höppner. Although consumers’ disposable incomes have risen, these increases were saved instead of being spent on additional consumption.
ifo Dresden: “Excess Mortality” Well Above Average in Saxony and Thuringia in the Second Half of 2021
In the second half of 2021, excess mortality reached a notable level in the German federal states of Saxony and Thuringia. They saw about 13 percent more deaths than would have been expected based on their age structure. In contrast, some other Länder, such as Schleswig-Holstein and Berlin, did not experience unusually high mortality over the same period. “It is noticeable that the higher a federal state’s vaccination rate, the lower its excess mortality in the second half of 2021,” says Marcel Thum, Director of the ifo Institute’s Dresden Branch.
Economists Expect Inflation to Remain High Worldwide
Economic experts from around the world expect inflation rates to remain high, finds the Economic Experts Survey, a quarterly survey conducted by the ifo Institute and the Swiss Economic Policy Institute. According to this survey, the inflation rate worldwide will reach 7 percent this year, then 5.9 percent next year, and 5 percent in 2026. “Expectations for 2023 are almost identical to those expressed in the survey at the beginning of the year. For next year and 2026, inflation expectations have actually increased somewhat,” says ifo researcher Niklas Potrafke. “Inflation will remain at a very high level.”
ifo World Economic Survey (2018q1)
10.7805/ebdc-wes-2018q1
ifo Employment Barometer Rises Marginally (October 2020)
German companies are cautiously optimistic about hiring. The ifo Employment Barometer climbed to 96.5 points in October after measuring 96.3 points in September. This indicates growth in the workforce in the fourth quarter, but risks remain due to the coronavirus crisis.
L’indice ifo du climat des affaires à nouveau en hausse
Le moral des entreprises s'est nettement amélioré, comme le montre la progression de l'indice ifo du climat des affaires, de 85,7 points en février à 87,8 points[1] en mars. Les prévisions des entreprises s'avèrent beaucoup moins pessimistes. L'évaluation de la situation actuelle affiche elle aussi une amélioration. Une lueur d'espoir se profile à l’horizon pour l’économie allemande.
German Economy Suffers a Setback in the 2021/2022 Winter Half-Year
Germany’s economy is taking a hit over the 2021/2022 winter half-year, temporarily interrupting the strong recovery of last summer. “The economic standstill in winter is due mainly to the fourth wave of the coronavirus, leading to a drop in sales for the hospitality industry and other consumer-related service providers,” says Timo Wollmershäuser, Head of Forecasts at ifo.
Germany Experiences Income Losses despite GDP Growth
Germany’s gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 1.9 percent last year, which represents a much bigger rise than the long-term average. “However, the massive supply shocks that continue to plague the German economy have left their mark. Bottlenecks in energy, intermediate products, and the workforce – greatly exacerbated by the war in Ukraine – hampered production and drove up inflation. As a result, the country’s GDP growth for 2022 was only around half of the 3.7 percent that had been expected before the war began,” says Timo Wollmershäuser, Head of Forecasts at ifo.
Allemagne : Hausse des prévisions de l'Institut ifo en matière d'exportations
De plus en plus d'exportateurs allemands se montrent prudemment optimistes. Les prévisions communiquées par l'industrie à l'Institut ifo en matière d'exportations ont progressé au mois de juillet, passant de moins 2,2 à plus 6,9 points. Les exportateurs allemands bénéficient de la reprise économique dans un grand nombre de pays.
Curricula that Omit Evolutionary Theory Influence Attitudes toward Science and Career Choice
Removing the theory of evolution from school curricula increases science skepticism and influences students’ career choices, finds a new study by the ifo Institute. “Students often go on to reject the theory of evolution even in adulthood. What’s more, it also reduces the likelihood that they will choose a career in the natural sciences,” says Benjamin Arold, a researcher at the ifo Institute and ETH Zurich. The consequences for career choices are most apparent in the life sciences such as biology.
ifo Institute: Germany Hardly Dependent on Non-European Countries for Medical Goods
In 2019, Germany depended very little on non-European countries for trade in medical goods. According to a study by the ifo Institute, the country achieved a trade surplus of EUR 37 billion in this area, with trade surpluses both in medicines and in medical equipment such as respirators or disinfectants.
ifo Business Survey Construction (2020b)
10.7805/ebdc-ibs-con-2020b
Le président de l'Institut ifo, Clemens Fuest, estime qu'il n'y a pas lieu de lever l'alerte après les élections législatives au Royaume-Uni
M. Clemens Fuest, président de l'Institut ifo, met en garde contre la persistance des incertitudes – même après la victoire nette du parti conservateur britannique aux élections législatives anticipées.
ifo Dresden: New Government Agencies Bring More Jobs to Structurally Weak German Regions But Hardly Any Inward Migration
Establishing government agencies in structurally weak regions does little to revitalize those regions: it rarely attracts new workers who could provide additional economic stimulus. However, it does create jobs for the population already living in a region. Relocating an agency that requires highly skilled employees and professionals may impact its ability to get work done.
Une guerre douanière élargie causerait des dommages considérables à la Chine et aux Etats-Unis
Une guerre douanière élargie causerait des dommages considérables à la Chine et aux États-Unis. Les exportations chinoises vers les États-Unis pourraient chuter de 171,3 milliards d'euros, les exportations américaines vers la Chine de 51 milliards d‘euros si les deux parties imposaient des droits de douane de 25 pourcent sur tous les produits. C'est le résultat d'une nouvelle étude des chercheurs de l'Institut ifo Gabriel Felbermayr et Marina Steininger pour le réseau de recherche EconPol Europe. Les négociations entre les deux pays devraient être terminées d'ici le vendredi 1er mars. "La Chine perdrait beaucoup plus en termes absolus et relatifs que les Etats-Unis", disent Felbermayr et Steininger. 25 pour cent des droits de douane réduiraient la production économique américaine de 9,5 milliards d'euros, de la Chine même de 30,4 milliards d'euros.
Economists Want More Money for the Military in the German Federal Budget
German economists are calling for more money in the 2024 federal budget for the country’s Ministry of Defence (59 percent), the Ministry of Education and Research (54 percent) and the Ministry for Digital and Transport (51 percent). This is a finding of the new ifo Economists Panel, which had 177 participants. “The budget should prioritize spending on public goods that benefit all citizens,” explains ifo researcher Niklas Potrafke. The economists see the greatest need for public investment in the areas of energy, transport, and digital services (81 percent), education and science (69 percent), and external security and defense (62 percent).
ifo Employment Barometer Falls Again (January 2021)
German companies’ hiring plans shrank slightly at the start of the new year. The ifo Employment Barometer fell to 95.0 points in January after measuring 95.5 points in December. The lockdown is leading to more layoffs, particularly in the retail sector.