ifo World Economic Climate Continues to Deteriorate – Results of the 141st World Economic Survey (WES) forQ3 2018

The ifo World Economic Climate continued to deteriorate in the third quarter of 2018. The indicator fell from 16.5 points to 2.9 points, which almost corresponds to the level seen in the first quarter of 2017. Although experts’ assessments of the current economic situation were far poorer this quarter, they remained at a high level. Their expectations dropped significantly, falling to their lowest level since the end of 2011. The economic climate deteriorated in nearly all regions. Both assessments of the current economic situation and economic expectations fell sharply in the European Union, in the emerging and developing economies of Asia (including China) and in Latin America. Economic expectations also cooled down in the USA, where the current economic situation was nevertheless assessed more positively than last quarter. In the CIS states, the Middle East and Northern Africa experts upwardly revised both their assessments of the current economic situation and their expectations. Expectations in world trade were dominated by the current conflict over tariffs, with most experts expecting exports to fall, especially in the USA and China. Forecasts of global investment activity deteriorated significantly. The experts surveyed also expect private consumption to stagnate.