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Alienation of the USA and Europe: Is the “American Century” Drawing to a Close?

Johannes Varwick, Josef Braml, Jürgen Hardt, Carlo Masala, Galina Kolev, Stormy-Annika Mildner, Julia Howald
ifo Institut, München, 2017

ifo Schnelldienst, 2017, 70, Nr. 14, 03-23

Since Donald Trump’s election as President of the USA in particular, many political observers are now questioning the USA’s reliability as a partner. It is no longer clear whether the USA remains committed to previously common goals like free trade, climate protection and strong transatlantic relations. The USA no longer seems prepared to support international and multilateral structures and institutions. Is the “American century” drawing to a close? For Johannes Varwick, University of Halle-Wittenberg, the USA remains an “indispensable nation”. Although adjustments to changed global political coordinates are currently taking place, the USA remains the world’s key nation. The overall position of the USA is so strong that doubts over whether a multipolar world order really exists are justified. Josef Braml, German Society for Foreign Policy, fears that US President Donald Trump and his advisors wish to further strengthen America’s position by implementing protectionist measures to make it even more globally competitive. They will do so at the expense of other nations, and especially of countries with high exports. According to Jürgen Hardt, Bundestag representative of the CDU/CSU, the world will become more multi-polar and transatlantic relations will become more important. Despite concern created by some of the signals coming from the new US administration, America’s society and economy remains one of the most dynamic and innovative in the world. That is why it is important to further consolidate economic relations and to quickly resume negotiations over a potentially comprehensive trade and investment partnership. Carlo Masala, University of the Federal Armed Forces Munich, answers the question raised in the title with “yes”, whereby he dates the USA’s decline in world politics – and thus the end of the “American century” – not to Trump’s election in 2016, but to the period between 2002 and 2004. In his view, Donald Trump is the “ugly face of America’s decline,” but not its cause. Galina Kolev, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft Köln, sees transatlantic trade as the main pillar of German-American economic relations and as a threat to them. According to Stormy-Annika Mildner and Julia Howald, Confederation of German Industry (BDI), German-American relations are in a crisis, regardless of the mutual declared willingness to resume negotiations. The extreme position adopted by President Trump has led to a loss of trust on this side of the Atlantic. That is why it is more important than ever for the transatlantic partners to rebuild trust and for Germany to seek a constructive dialogue over free trade with the new US administration at all levels.

JEL Classification: F130, F630

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ifo Institut, München, 2017