Lohnrisiko und Altersarmut im Sozialstaat

Wages and statutory pension claims are connected via the German social insurance system. This dissertation analyzes wage risks and shows the risk of old-age poverty in Germany. After a short introduction, the effects of income and unemployment risks on individual wages are analyzed in chapter 2. Building on a portfolio model for the labor market, the effects are estimated simultaneously for men and women in East and West Germany. We find positive compensations for both risks but also a negative interaction effect. The marginal effect of the income risk is positive. However, the marginal effect of the unemployment risk is negative. Chapter 3 focuses on the effects of the reduction of unemployment benefits in the course of the German Hartz reforms. For men and women in East and West Germany we find that the reform-induced decrease in unemployment compensation has an adverse effect on wages. In West Germany the effect is increasing with the level of qualification. The risk of old-age poverty in Germany is subject of chapter 4. In a micro-simulation the statutory pension claims of cohort 1939-1941 and cohort 1955-57 are compared. The risk of old-age poverty increases in East and West Germany. The increase is happening faster in East Germany, but the future level is still below the level of West Germany. The risk of old-age poverty decreases as the level of qualification increases. Due to mutual coverage, couples and widows show lower risks. The final section concludes.