Demographic Change Continues Uninterrupted – Despite Higher Immigration: Population Projection for Germany to 2060 Based on the 2011 Census

In their study Eckart Bomsdorf and Jörg Winkelhausen, University of Cologne, use the results of the 2011 census as a basis for calculating projections of Germany’s population up to 2060. Their calculations show that the future population decline in Germany cannot be avoided, even assuming high levels of immigration. Fertility rates have been stuck at a low level for a longer period of time and since the present generation of potential mothers already belongs to the low birth-rate years, the effect of the decline in the population will merely be reinforced. Only immigration could limit population decline to any significant degree, although it cannot entirely offset it. Even if immigration is high the population will shrink and, above all, age.