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No Structural Improvement in the Budget – On the Results of the Tax Revenue Forecast of November 2012

Christian Breuer
ifo Institut, München, 2012

ifo Schnelldienst, 2012, 65, Nr. 22, 13-18

The currently favourable tax revenues prompted the "Tax revenue forecast" working group to upwardly revise is forecast for 2012 at its 141st meeting at the end of October 2012. Tax revenues totalling 602.4 billion euros are now expected for this year, versus 596.5 billion euros in May. The positive forecast correction for this year is primarily due to the ongoing cash results. Revisions to estimates for the years to follow are more cautious. For 2013 total tax revenues are estimated to amount to 618.0 billion euros, which is almost exactly the same amount that was expected in May. By 2016 revenues are expected to be lower than predicted in May. At the end of the forecasting period in 2017 forecast tax revenues are expected to total 706.6 billion euros.

JEL Classification: E620, H220, H600

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ifo Institut, München, 2012