Germany's Population Through 2060: the Birth Deficit Increases Dramatically – Model Calculations Based on Population Data from 2011

Eckart Bomsdorf, University of Cologne, and Jörg Winkelhausen investigate demographic developments in Germany through 2060, building on demographic data collected prior to 31 December 2011. Their results reveal that – even in the case of a long-term decline in the population – the explosive issue is not primarily the decline in the population, but the change in the population’s age structure. The shift of the standard retirement age to 67 under the statutory pension scheme will not resolve demographically-induced problems. In the authors’ opinion, migration is the only way of offsetting the decline in the population and the labour pool, and of limiting the effects of an ageing society.