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Rapid comeback of investment in machinery and equipment: Flash in the pan or investment boom? Leasing business is recovering quickly

Joachim Gürtler, Arno Städtler
ifo Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, München, 2010

ifo Schnelldienst, 2010, 63, Nr. 18, 28-32

The German leasing industry regained confidence in an upswing in the summer of 2010. Two years after the collapse, assessments of the current business situation are on balance moving in the positive area again. In August 2010 about one in four survey participants considered his business to be good, 49% assessed their current business situation as satisfactory and 24% as bad. On average of the first eight months about 36% of the surveyed firms on balance considered their business outlook to be favourable. The investment indicator, which is based on inventory assessments, also reveals a remarkable dynamism in investment activity on an annual average. The leading indicator for machinery and equipment investment, including other plant, points to (nominal) growth of about 6% for the current year. At the beginning of 2011 the pace of investment will initially slow down due to advancement effects, from the second half of the year the firms are likely to invest again increasingly in machinery, equipment and vehicles. In the first three quarters of 2011 investment in machinery and equipment is expected to increase by 8 to 9%.

JEL Classification: L890

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ifo Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, München, 2010