Model computations for the population development in smaller EU countries to 2050 - Denmark

In the presentation of population forecasts, densely populated countries frequently stand in the foreground. In the EU there are a number of countries that have less than 10 million inhabitants that are still of great importance for population development in the EU. Eckart Bomsdorf, University of Cologne, and Kristian Dicke, Cologne Graduate School in Management, Economics and Social Sciences, have examined demographic change in Denmark. The authors look at the development of the total number and the age structure of the Danish population as well as the importance of the individual components of the population changes. According to their calculations the population size will clearly increase in the middle and high scenarios, from 5.5 million in 2010 to 6.2 or to 7.2 million inhabitants by 2050. Only in the low scenarios will it fall slightly - to 5.3 million inhabitants. In terms of the age structure, a shift of the population, particularly of the middle aged to the 65 year-olds and older and to the under twenty year-olds will occur in all scenarios. And in all three scenarios the lowest shares of the group of 20-65 year olds will occur around 2040. The demographic burdens, for example for the statutory pension and health insurance system, will increase up to 2040 before a decline sets in again.