Model calculations for population development in the former East Bloc countries to 2050 – the Bulgarian example

Population projections often concentrate on densely populated countries. Also in the EU, however, there are a number of countries that have less than 10 million inhabitants but whose population development is still of great importance for the European Union. Eckart Bomsdorf and Ilina Valchinova, University of Cologne, have researched demographic change in Bulgaria. The authors have examined the development of the size and the age structure of the population of Bulgaria as well as the importance of the individual components of the population trend. According to their calculations the Bulgarian population will decline clearly up to 2050: from 7.6 million in 2007 to 3.9 million, 4.6 million or 5.7 million inhabitants in 2050, depending on the variation used. In terms of the age structure a shift of population will occur, particularly from middle age to the 65 and older cohorts. The share of people over age 65 will increase to levels between 50 and 75 percent.