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The US after the elections - what can be expected for Europe?

Henrik Enderlein, Detlef Junker, Stormy Mildner, Katharina Gnath, Josef Braml
ifo Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, München, 2008

ifo Schnelldienst, 2008, 61, Nr. 23, 03-15

Henrik Enderlein, Hertie School of Governance, Berlin, fears that the expectations linked with the election of Barack Obama as the new US president are too high. When he assumes office Obama will have a hardly manageable economic challenge so that economic policy will become almost the sore leitmotiv of the first years of his administration and he will do everything so that the US economy is in a solid upswing by spring 2012. For Europe this means that Obama will not undertake anything that could run counter to this goal. For this reason, one should not expect any "great multilateral momentum in American economic policy". Also Detlef Junker, Center for American Studies, University of Heidelberg, warns against too high hopes. For him it is quite probable that in spite of the euphoria over the election of Obama, the transatlantic relationship in the medium term could be marked by a crisis of disappointed hopes. The structural differences that will continue to exist also after 20 January 2009, which are also reflected in the expectations and mentality of the majority of Europeans and Americans, will limit governments' scope for action. Stormy Mildner, SWP Berlin, points particularly to the reform of the international financial market architecture and to energy and climate policies as the fields in which the Europeans can expect more transatlantic cooperation. To what extent Obama will meet these expectations remains to be seen, however. Katharina Gnath and Josef Braml, German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP), Berlin, see above all "difficult times ahead for multilateral free trade".

JEL Classification: F000,H000

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ifo Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, München, 2008