Article in Journal
Markov Switching and the Ifo Business Climate
Klaus Abberger, Wolfgang Nierhaus
ifo Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, München, 2008
ifo Schnelldienst, 2008, 61, Nr. 10, 25-30
ifo Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, München, 2008
ifo Schnelldienst, 2008, 61, Nr. 10, 25-30
The calculations presented here show that the Ifo Business Climate for industry and trade can be modelled with a Markov Switching (MS) approach. With this MS model, the turning points of the cyclical component of real GDP can be reliably recognised and also with a lead time.
JEL Classification: E320
Included in
Journal (Complete Issue)
ifo Schnelldienst 10/2008
ifo Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, München, 2008