Higher participation rates for women and a retirement age of 67 as could stabilise the labour supply - model computations for Germany to 2050

The discussion regarding demographic change in Germany focuses mainly on absolute population levels or the ratio between young and old. It is also worth looking at the development of the total amount of the working age population. Eckart Bomsdorf, University of Cologne, has analysed demographic change in Germany up to 2050 in terms of the potential labour force and has conducted model computations using various assumptions as to fertility, migration and mortality. For the development of the number of people in employment, changes in the female participation rate have also been examined. The results show that both an increase in the statutory retirement age as well as a higher female participation rate could help bridge the gaps that will arise in the labour force from demographic change. Without a retirement age of 67 as well as a higher female participation rate, not only the number of gainfully employmed but also their share in the population as a whole - the labour force participation rate - will sink to a level that the country will not be able to afford.