Article in Journal

Nursing care for the aged and social services – growing needs and insufficient funds

Herbert Hofmann
ifo Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, München, 2006

ifo Schnelldienst, 2006, 59, Nr. 15, 24-30

Due to demographic ageing, the number of people in need of nursing care will increase clearly in the coming decades. The present infrastructure for in-patient and out-patient care will not suffice to preserve or even improve the necessary standard of care. Nursing services, nursing homes and also nursing staff will be lacking: A calculation of the personnel requirements in full-time equivalents on the basis of known personnel/nursing-care-case rates shows that up to 2010 a total of 150,000 full-time workers (full-time equivalents) will be needed. Up to 2020 this number could rise to ca. 250,000. Thus, the costs of state nursing-care insurance schemes will continue to rise. Since according to the current rules adjustment on the revenue side is not ensured, a fundamental basic reform of nursing care insurance is urgently necessary.

JEL Classification: H510,I120,I180

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ifo Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, München, 2006