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Enlargement of the Eurozone and its effect on the European economy?

Christa Randzio-Plath, Carsten Hefeker, Jarko Fidrmuc, Gunther Schnabl, Hermann Remsperger
ifo Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, München, 2006

ifo Schnelldienst, 2006, 59, Nr. 22, 03-18

On 1 January Slovenia will join the European Monetary Union as its thirteenth member. Bulgaria and Romania will become new members of the EU on the same date so that the potential number of Eurozone candidates will increase to 14. What effects can be expected from the enlargement of the Eurozone on the European economy? In the opinion of Christa Randzio-Plath, former chairperson of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament, it is expected of the monetary union in general that it will contribute to a deepened integration. Thus the enlargement of the Eurozone can influence positively the cohesion and the co-operation of the old and new member states. For Carsten Hefeker, University of Siegen, possible effects of the enlargement of the monetary union on the present members and the new member states will particularly depend on the policies of the European Central Bank and the reaction of private investors. Jarko Fidrmuc, University of Munich and Comenius University Bratislava, addresses the question of how the traditional theory of the optimal currency helps us assess the eastern enlargement of the Eurozone. In the opinion of Gunther Schnabl, Leipzig University, joining the Eurozone offers "a unique opportunity for emerging markets. The monetary reputation and the stable low interest-rate level of the European Central Bank can be safeguarded in the long run." Hermann Remsperger, German Bundesbank, observes that from the viewpoint of the current EMU countries, an EMU enlargement should increase competition and reform pressure. In principle, the euro system is equipped for enlargement, however.

JEL Classification: E520

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ifo Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, München, 2006