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On a long-term basis no unfavourable outlook for commercial construction in Germany

Erich Gluch
ifo Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, München, 2005

in: ifo Schnelldienst, 2005, 58, Nr. 04, 42-48

The German construction industry has experienced a decade of declining construction demand: in 2004 real construction volume reached only 78% of the value of 1994. Also in 2005 a lasting improvement is not in sight. In the medium and long term, however, a moderate upward trend will set in. This is the result the of the fourth edition of the Ifo Institute's construction forecast for Germany. The volume of commercial construction, at €72 billion in 2014 (at prices of 2000), will be 11% higher than the value of 2004. Civil engineering will increase in the forecast period a little less strongly (ca. 9% to €22.3 billion in 2014) than structural engineering (just 12% to €50 billion in 2014). In residential construction in the same 10-year period, construction volume will increase by only 8½% and in public-sector construction by only 8%.

JEL Classification: L740

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ifo Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, München, 2005