Diverging trends in German wholesaling

After a two-year slump, wholesale trade expanded again in 2003; year-on-year turnover growth was 1.2%. Total turnover, excluding VAT, amounted to €573 billion. Growth in the wholesaling of producer goods increased by 1.8% whereas the growth in the wholesale trade of consumer goods was only 0.5%. For 2004 the Ifo Institute expects an accelerated turnover increase in wholesale trade in producer goods. Already in the first quarter of 2004 the firms had a year-on-year turnover increase of 4% de to increased investment in plant and equipment. Some wholesale sectors reported double-digit growth. In the wholesale trade of consumer goods the picture was completely different. In the first quarter of 2004 turnover declined by 0.2% compared to the first quarter of 2003. Because of the only moderate recovery of private consumption and the on-going structural change in retailing, the Ifo Institute expects stagnating turnover at best in 2004.