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Will the euro conversion affect price stability?

Martin Hüfner, Wolfgang Nierhaus
ifo Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, München, 2001

in: ifo Schnelldienst, 2001, 54, Nr. 18, 03-10

Prior to the converting of DM prices into euro prices, many feared that the conversion will be used to increase prices. According to estimations by Dr. Martin Hüfner, Chief Economist of the HVB Group, prices in Germany will increase by about half a percentage point as a result of the introduction of the euro currency, with most of this price adjustment already having occurred in the second quarter of the year. At the beginning of the coming year, when the euro currency is actually in circulation, prices are not expected to increase any more but will, in fact, drop significantly "since then the retailers will in fact round off down to the next euro threshold price. We project that the euro-effect on inflation in the first and second quarters will be a lowering of 0.2 percentage points for each quarter." According to the appraisal of Dr. Wolfgang Nierhaus, Ifo Institute, the impending introduction of the euro currency has not lead to an additional burden on consumer budgets. The recent price increases can very well be attributable to other factors.

JEL Classification: E310,F330

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ifo Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, München, 2001