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Migration after EU enlargement: Were is the problem?

Hans-Werner Sinn, Martin Werding
ifo Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, München, 2001

ifo Schnelldienst, 2001, 54, Nr. 08, 18-27

On the agenda for negotiations on EU enlargement in the first half of 2001 are regulations regarding the free movement of labour. In the meantime, several estimates of the migration potential that Germany or all of Western Europe can expect after EU enlargement have been put forward. The public discussion has focused especially on the potential volume of migration, which for Germany is estimated at between 2 and 6 million people in the course of 15 years. In the final analysis, however, the real cause of possible subsequent problems is not the volume of the migration, which is difficult to estimate, but the legal frame-work conditions for migration within the EU.

JEL Classification: J390,J400,J610,O200

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ifo Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, München, 2001