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Continuingly weak business situation in construction to retard economic growth in Europe up to 2003

Volker Rußig
ifo Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, München, 2001

in: ifo Schnelldienst, 2001, 54, Nr. 14, 36-43

The fifty-first EUROCONSTRUCT conference took place on 18/19 June 2001 in Copenhagen. The focus was on up-dated forecasts for the European construction sector that again included 15 western and four central and eastern European countries. The results for 2001 are that Europe can expect a weakening of construction growth (just +1½% after almost +3%). Thereafter, construction output will increase but at a flat growth path of about 2% in the two following years. This is caused by a weakening in construction in parts of western Europe; in central and eastern Europe, a strong expansion on construction output is forecast. Residential construction will decline initially and then grow at only a below-average pace, with new housing construction retarding growth. Non-residential construction will show considerably stronger growth. And civil engineering, expanding at a 10% pace during the entire forecast period, will be the strongest growth sector in the construction industry. Construction's share in GDP will continue to decline in western Europe to ca. 10½%, but in central and eastern Europe it will increase continuously to more than 12½% by 2003.

JEL Classification: L740,O100,O520

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ifo Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, München, 2001