Expectation Formation, Uncertainty and Ambiguity at the Firm Level, Measurement and Macroeconomic Implications

Tasks

Firstly, we construct and compare new uncertainty and ambiguity measures at a company-level based on ifo survey data. Secondly, we compare our uncertainty measures with other widely used proxies for uncertainty. Thirdly, we analyse the relationship between our new measures of uncertainty and ambiguity and 1) the expectation formation process and 2) firm-specific activity variables, especially investment.

Methodology

In addition to a purely descriptive analysis of the new data, correlation analyses as well as diverse econometric estimate procedures and panel data methods are used.

Data and other sources

Survey data on manufacturers collected by the ifo Institute form the data basis of this project.

Results

The project results will be published as one or more working paper(s).