Skilled Worker Potential Largely Exhausted in German State of Thuringia

Younger age groups joining the labor force can fill only around 247,000 jobs. It may be possible to help an estimated 15,200 people on long-term unemployment to reenter working life. In addition, participation in the labor market could be increased in the 20–30 and 55–65 age brackets. Based on this data, Thuringia could gain 63,600 people for its workforce. Transitioning part-time employees to full-time work could yield a further 100,000 full-time workers. The region could also convince 30,000 residents who currently commute elsewhere to seek local positions.

“Public debate tends to focus on determining which of these potential sources it would be best to tap. In many cases, however, it’s reasonable to assume that all sources together wouldn’t be sufficient to have a meaningful impact on meeting the need for skilled workers. As soon as qualifications and age structures are factored in, the calculated potential quickly collapses. What often gets forgotten is that participation in the labor market is based on voluntary decisions,” Glöckner says. Moreover, the German Länder are all competing for skilled workers. Attracting people to Thuringia from other states or other countries is proving very difficult. “So it makes even more sense to pursue alternative strategies, such as accelerating digitalization,” Glöckner says.

This article is based on a study for the Thuringian Ministry of Labor, Social Affairs, Health, Women, and Family. The ifo Institute in Dresden provided calculations for skilled worker potential made as part of a recent study on skilled workers. Potential sources of skilled labor include Thuringia residents who could become active members of the labor force, such as the unemployed. Other measures include increasing labor force participation, reducing part-time work, and attracting additional workers from other German states or abroad.