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Germany’s Glass Industry Sees Bleak Future
Expectations among German manufacturers of glass, ceramics, stone, and other nonmetallic minerals have dropped to their lowest level since 1991. In September, the ifo survey put this indicator at minus 62 points for this energy-intensive segment. “The gloomy mood in construction, skyrocketing energy prices, and uncertainty about the stability of gas supplies are making this segment more pessimistic than ever about the future,” says ifo industry expert Nicolas Bunde.
ifo Institute: German Automotive Industry Slowly Starts Up Again
The German automotive industry hopes to see a slow recovery in the coming months. This is the finding of the ifo Institute’s latest Business Survey. Business expectations have taken a clear positive turn for the first time in seven months. The expectations indicator rose from minus 11.9 points in May to plus 27.7 points in June.
EEAG : le plan de relance européen contre les conséquences de la pandémie de Covid-19 doit être amélioré
Des économistes européens et américains ont demandé des modifications au programme « Next Generation EU » (NGEU) lancé pour surmonter les conséquences de la crise de Covid-19. « Il ne sera guère possible de faire respecter les consignes actuelles qui limitent l'emploi des moyens prévus à la lutte contre le changement climatique et à la transition numérique. L'absence d'une orientation vers des projets transfrontaliers à rayonnement européen est une des carences du plan, ... », a déclaré Clemens Fuest, président de l'Institut ifo, lors de la présentation du rapport « Beyond the Coronavirus Crisis: Investing for a Viable Future » par l’European Economic Advisory Group (EEAG) ce mardi à Bruxelles.
People in the United States Work 1.4 Days per Week from Home on Average
In the United States, the average time spent working from home is 1.4 days per week. In the United Kingdom, employees work from home for 1.5 days per week on average. In Australia, the average is 1.3 days. The leader among the English-speaking countries is Canada, at 1.7 days per week. In other Western countries, people spend much less time working from home. The average in Germany is 1.0 days, while in France and Italy, it is just 0.6 and 0.7 days per week. This is the finding of a survey of full-time employees conducted by the ifo Institute in a total of 34 countries.
Allemagne : L’Institut ifo confirme sa prévision d’une croissance de 0,6 % pour l’année 2019
L’Institut ifo vient de confirmer sa prévision établie au printemps d’une croissance de 0,6 % pour l’année 2019. « L’évolution conjoncturelle est contrastée. En effet, si l’industrie manufacturière, très axée sur l’exportation et créatrice d’environ un quart de la valeur ajoutée de l’économie allemande, est désormais entrée en récession, les prestataires de services, dont les activités se concentrent sur le marché intérieur, ainsi que l’industrie du BTP enregistrent quant à eux une croissance robuste, voire forte », constate Timo Wollmershaeuser, directeur du service des prévisions conjoncturelles de l’institut.
Institut ifo : les réfugiés ukrainiens se dirigent principalement vers la Pologne, l'Italie et la République tchèque en raison de leurs contacts dans ces pays
La Pologne, l'Italie, la République tchèque, l'Allemagne, l'Espagne et la Hongrie semblent devenir les pays de destination préférés des réfugiés ukrainiens partis vers l'UE. C'est ce qu'indiquent les chiffres d'une étude réalisée par l'Institut ifo.
Expectations Considerably Worse in the German Chemical Industry
Amid fears of a shortage of natural gas, the expectations of German chemical companies deteriorated significantly in June, with the indicator plummeting to minus 40.3 points, down from minus 27.2 points in May. This is the result of the latest survey conducted by the ifo Institute. “There is a lot of uncertainty about a Russian gas embargo and the consequences this would have for the chemical industry,” says ifo industry expert Anna Wolf.
Production Expectations in German Industry Improved
German manufacturers’ production expectations improved in August, according to surveys by the ifo Institute. The indicator rose to 27 points in August, after measuring 23 (seasonally adjusted) in July. This is very high compared to the long-term average. “Apparently, companies are hoping that supply bottlenecks for intermediate products will slowly ease over the coming months,” says Klaus Wohlrabe, Head of Surveys at ifo.
ifo Business Climate Eastern Germany: Massive Collapse (March 2020)
In March, the ifo business climate for eastern Germany cooled off heavily. The ifo Business Climate Index for the entire regional economy fell from 99.4 to 89.7 points, in line with the figure for the whole of Germany. Both the assessments of the current situation and the business expectations of the eastern German respondents surveyed saw a steep drop. Overall, the outlook declined even more strongly than the assessments of current business.
Institut ifo/EconPol : Le Brexit pénalisera en particulier les entreprises du Royaume-Uni
Les entreprises du Royaume-Uni pourraient être particulièrement affectées par le Brexit, indique une étude réalisée par l'Institut ifo et le réseau de recherche EconPol Europe. Pour quelle raison ? Les entreprises britanniques importent beaucoup de produits intermédiaires achetés auprès d'un petit nombre de sous-traitants basés dans l'Union européenne. « L'actuelle crise de la Covid-19 a démontré qu'une diversification des chaînes logistiques est essentielle pour atténuer les effets négatifs de ruptures d'approvisionnement imprévues », explique Lisandra Flach, directrice du Centre d'économie internationale de l'Institut ifo.
The EU Should Consider the Economic Impact of Climate Action
The ifo Institute, EconPol Europe, and the European Roundtable on Climate Change and Sustainable Transition (ERCST) have urged the future European Commission to consider climate action also as a matter of economic, industrial, and competition policy. “This is due to the cost implications of CO2 restrictions as well as the economic opportunities created by emerging industries,” they wrote in a report published in Brussels on Friday. “The EU’s economic analysis must comprehensively consider both the negative and positive effects of climate policy, including the impact on people’s consumption opportunities, on industrial competitiveness, and on supply chains,” says ifo President Clemens Fuest. The next Commission must ensure Europe’s competitiveness and the resilience of its economy.
Experts Expect Slight Growth Worldwide
Economic experts from all over the world are rather cautious about the economic development in their countries in 2023. This is a finding of the Economic Experts Survey (EES), a global quarterly survey conducted by the ifo Institute and the Swiss Economic Policy Institute. Expectations for the individual countries average out to a global growth rate of 2.8 percent. “This means that our experts believe a global recession is becoming increasingly unlikely,” says ifo researcher Klaus Gründler.
ifo Business Climate Index Rises (October 2023)
Sentiment in the German economy has improved. The ifo Business Climate Index rose to 86.9 points in October, up from 85.8 points (Seasonally adjusted) in September. Companies are somewhat more satisfied with their current business. In addition, managers were less pessimistic in their view of the coming months. Germany’s economy can see a silver lining ahead.
Schleswig-Holstein Tops German Länder Growth Table
Schleswig-Holstein, Rhineland-Palatinate, Hamburg, and Bremen are the German federal states with the highest economic growth in the third quarter of 2022: Schleswig-Holstein at 2.4 percent, Rhineland-Palatinate 1.8 percent, Hamburg 1.6 percent, and Bremen 1.3 percent. Berlin follows at 1.2 percent. These are new estimates by the ifo Institute. “This is the first time we have calculated quarterly figures for the Länder, shortly after doing so for Germany as a whole,” says ifo economic researcher Robert Lehmann. “Until now, we had produced figures only for full calendar years, and with some delay.”
ifo Institute: EU Agreement Shows Solidarity and Ability to Act
With the agreement on an economic recovery fund, the EU has sent an important signal of solidarity, its ability to act, and far-reaching change, according to the assessment of the EU summit outcome by Clemens Fuest, President of the ifo Institute.
Experts Expect Steep Price Increases for Real Estate Worldwide
Economic experts are expecting real estate prices worldwide to climb steeply in the years ahead. This is the finding of the latest Economic Experts Survey (EES), which is conducted quarterly by the ifo Institute and the Swiss Economic Policy Institute. According to the survey, real estate prices will increase by an average of 9 percent annually over the next ten years. The experts predict increases of 8.4 percent in the UK, 6.0 percent in the US, and 5.5 percent in France. “The increase in real estate prices is being driven more by factors of demand rather than supply,” says ifo researcher Timo Wochner.
Clemens Fuest oppose sa vision d’une « Europe des chances » à celle d’une « Europe-forteresse »
À trois semaines des prochaines élections européennes, le président de l’Institut ifo s’est opposé à ce qu’il estime être les mauvaises réponses des responsables politiques pour enrayer la montée du populisme. Dans son discours à l’occasion de la remise du prix Hanns Martin Schleyer à Stuttgart, il s’est notamment prononcé contre la vision d’une « Europe qui protège », telle qu’elle a été évoquée récemment par le président français Emmanuel Macron.
Berlin’s Rent Cap Slows Rents and Shrinks Supply of Rental Properties
In Berlin, rents and purchase prices for properties affected by the city’s rent cap have developed more weakly than in other major German cities. Berlin introduced its cap exactly one year ago. At the same time, the supply of rental properties in the regulated segment declined. This is the finding of a new ifo Institute study comparing Berlin with other major cities with more than 500,000 inhabitants. “Purchase price growth rates in Berlin have been 5 to 9 percentage points below the control group since the third quarter of 2020,” says ifo President Clemens Fuest, one of the coauthors. By contrast, rents and purchase prices for uncapped properties in Berlin have recently been rising faster than in the control group.
EBDC Business Expectations Panel (2021)
10.7805/ebdc-bep-2021
ifo Export Expectations Fall (July 2022)
Sentiment among German exporters has darkened again. The ifo Export Expectations fell to minus 0.5 points in July, down from plus 3.4 points in June. Positive and negative responses are currently in balance. The gas shortage is putting a strain on German exports.