Team
The people behind the ifo Institute offer the very high level of expertise and experience needed to fulfill our research and service mandate.
Eastern German Economy in Coronavirus Recession
The ifo Institute expects economic output in eastern Germany for the current year to slump by 5.9 percent. In Saxony, the decline is likely to be even more pronounced at minus 6.4 percent, owing to the larger proportion of industry there. However, the fall in gross domestic product will be somewhat less severe than in Germany as a whole (minus 6.7 percent). In the coming year, economic growth in eastern Germany and Saxony is likely to see a strong recovery, with growth rates of 5.8 percent and 6.3 percent, respectively (Germany: 6.4 percent), and will return to its pre-crisis level before the end of the year.
ifo Institute: “German Citizen Fund” to Foster Retirement Incomes
The ifo Institute proposes to foster retirement incomes. In an article in the current ifo Schnelldienst, a team led by ifo President Clemens Fuest suggests investing money for all German citizens in the stock market via a “German Citizen Fund.”
Situation in the German Automotive Industry Somewhat Improved in Some Cases
The business situation for German automakers and their suppliers remains strained in December, finds the latest ifo Institute survey. In December, the indicator rose to plus 1.5 points, up from minus 1.5 points in November. “Overall, the German automotive industry appears to be in a better position today than in late summer 2022,” says Prof. Oliver Falck, Director of the ifo Center for Industrial Organization and New Technologies. However, expectations for the coming months remain cautious. As late as September, the automotive industry was still expecting earnings to plummet in the second half of the year.
Women Disadvantaged in Bonus Payments as Well
The pay gap for women in Germany, Austria, and Switzerland exists not just in base salary but in bonus payments as well. This has been shown by analyses conducted by the ifo Institute and the management consultancy Mercer for over 270 companies in the three countries. In Germany, women receive an average of 6.1% less in bonus payments. In Austria, the gap between men and women is 7.2%. Companies in Switzerland pay women an average of 5.2% less in bonuses.
Institut ifo : légère amélioration de la situation en matière de politique économique dans les pays d’Europe occidentale
Les expertes et experts d’Europe occidentale constatent une légère amélioration de la situation politico-économique dans leur région par rapport au trimestre précédent. C'est ce qui ressort de l'Economic Experts Survey (EES), un sondage trimestriel réalisé par l'Institut ifo et l'Institut de politique économique suisse IWP dans le monde entier. Dans leur publication, les deux instituts observent une légère amélioration de la politique économique en Europe occidentale par rapport au trimestre précédent, avec + 3 points sur une échelle de - 100 à + 100. Les répondants allemands portent cependant un jugement moins favorable sur la politique économique de leur pays (- 9), tout comme les répondants autrichiens (- 5), tandis que les expertes et experts suisses constatent un léger mieux (+ 1).
Institut ifo / EconPol Europe : La politique de soutien de l’UE manque de crédibilité en matière de suivi des résultats
La politique de soutien de l’UE aux régions les plus pauvres manque d’objectifs clairement définis et de normes uniformes pour évaluer les programmes. En effet, les évaluations sont commandées par des autorités de gestion nationales ou régionales qui ont tout intérêt à prouver le succès de leurs programmes, réduisant in fine la crédibilité du suivi. Telles sont les conclusions d’une équipe de chercheurs de l’Institut ifo et du Centre pour la recherche européenne en économie ZEW de Mannheim, qui se sont basé sur les données de la Cohesion Open Data Platform qui recense plus de 2 500 évaluations des États membres. Les chercheurs recommandent la mise en place d’un organe consultatif européen afin d’évaluer les politiques de soutien.
Material Shortages Decrease in German Manufacturing
Material shortages have decreased in German manufacturing. In January, 48.4 percent of the companies surveyed reported problems. In December, that figure was 50.7 percent. This is a finding of the ifo Institute’s latest survey. “Given the mild winter recession that’s emerging, we would’ve liked to see a stronger decline,” says Klaus Wohlrabe, Head of Surveys at ifo. “Many companies are only slowly managing to work through their high order backlogs.”
Shortage of Materials in German Construction Worsens Drastically
The materials problem on German construction sites has worsened. In building construction, 43.9 percent of companies reported in May that they were having problems procuring construction materials in time. This is up from 23.9 percent in April and just 5.6 percent in March, the ifo Institute reports. Civil engineering was slightly less affected, with 33.5 percent in May. In April, only 11.5 percent of the companies in that sector had reported bottlenecks. “Capacity utilization in the industry is still high, but supply bottlenecks are causing worries for more and more companies,” says Felix Leiss, a survey expert at the ifo Institute.
ifo Institute Lowers Growth Forecast to 0.9 Percent for Germany in 2024
The ifo Institute has cut its forecast for German economic growth in 2024 from 1.4 percent to 0.9 percent. For 2025, it expects a slight acceleration to 1.3 percent; ifo had previously expected growth of 1.2 percent. “The last quarter of 2023 is likely to see weaker development than previously expected, which will then also have an impact on the year ahead,” says Timo Wollmershäuser, Head of Forecasts at ifo.
ifo Institute and Helmholtz Infection Researchers Favor Limited, Gradual Opening in Germany
The ifo Institute and the Helmholtz Centre for Infection Research (HZI) have called for a “prudent, step-by-step opening process” in the coronavirus crisis. They recommend that the policy should be to do more testing to limit the increase in infections as the lockdown is progressively eased. “These measures are essential to limit the health and economic costs of the pandemic,” says a joint study by the two institutes.
ifo Economists Panel: Coronavirus Crisis Increases the Number of Zombie Companies in Germany
German economists fear that in the coronavirus crisis, the number of zombie companies will “tend to increase.” Of the economists surveyed by the ifo Institute, 66 percent share this concern. This is a key finding of the Economists Panel jointly put together by the ifo Institute and Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung. “Some of the state’s aid measures unfortunately have undesirable side effects,” says Niklas Potrafke, Director of the ifo Center for Public Finance and Political Economy. “They serve to artificially prolong the life of companies that lack a convincing business model.”
ifo World Economic Survey (2018q2)
10.7805/ebdc-wes-2018q2
Social Contacts Are Leading Refugees from Ukraine to Go Mainly to Poland, Italy, and the Czech Republic
Poland, Italy, the Czech Republic, Germany, Spain, and Hungary could become the most sought-after destination countries for Ukrainian refugees in the EU, according to calculations by the ifo Institute.
Prévisions des exportateurs allemands quasiment inchangées
Les exportateurs allemands ont gardé un bon moral au cours du mois de février. Si les prévisions recueillies en matière d'exportations sont passées de 17,7 points en janvier à 17,6 points ce mois-ci, ils tablent néanmoins sur une prolongation de la tendance à la hausse. L'évolution du conflit russo-ukrainien pourrait cependant aggraver les incertitudes et impacter les flux de marchandises.
Number of Short-Time Workers in Germany Drops Despite Slowdown
The number of short-time workers in Germany has fallen despite the economic slowdown. In August, 110,000 people were on short-time work, down from 150,000* in May, according to estimates by the ifo Institute based on the ifo Business Survey and figures from the German Federal Employment Agency. “Germany’s weak economy has had little effect so far. One reason for this may be that the regulations facilitating access to short-time allowances expired at the end of June,” says ifo labor market researcher Sebastian Link. As a share of the workforce, the figure fell from 0.4 to 0.3 percent.
Inflation Is Eating Up Germans’ Savings
Inflation is eating up Germans’ additional savings. “The extra savings that many households built up during the coronavirus pandemic have now melted away. At the same time, consumer prices will continue to rise sharply. This unfortunately means that private consumption will fail to drive the German economy for the rest of the year,” says Timo Wollmershäuser, Head of Forecasts at ifo. This is the result of a recent analysis of bank balance sheets published in ifo Schnelldienst.
ifo Business Survey Construction (2020a)
10.7805/ebdc-ibs-con-2020a
EBDC Business Expectations Panel (2016)
10.7805/ebdc-bep-2016
ifo Institute in Favor of Free Trade with South America
The ifo Institute has called for the speedy ratification of the free trade agreement between the EU and South America (Mercosur). “This offers a unique opportunity for South American countries. It should be seized, not allowed to fail as a result of resistance from the French and German agricultural lobby,” writes ifo researcher Martin Braml in an article for the ifo Schnelldienst.
Sondage ifo : Avis plus critiques sur les investissements directs chinois que sur ceux d’autres pays
Dans de nombreux pays, les investissements directs de la Chine sont considérés de manière plus critique que ceux d’autres pays. Tel est le résultat d'une enquête (World Economic Survey) de l'Institut ifo auprès de 1012 experts économiques du monde entier. Les répondants ont émis des avis particulièrement négatifs aux États-Unis et dans l'Union européenne, 78,4 % (États-Unis) et 66,2 % (U.E.) les jugeant « légèrement plus négatifs » ou « nettement plus négatifs » que ceux des autres pays. Les économies avancées craignent avant tout les risques d’un transfert de technologie (74 %) et de tentatives d’ingérence du gouvernement chinois (69 %).