More Foreigners Do Not Increase Germany’s Crime Rate

Migration to Germany does not lead to higher crime rates at the places of immigration, as shown by the ifo Institute’s analysis of the police crime statistics by district for the years 2018 to 2023. “We find no correlation between an increasing share of foreigners in a district and the local crime rate. The same applies in particular to refugees,” says ifo researcher Jean-Victor Alipour. “The results are consistent with international research, according to which migration and refugee inflows have no systematic influence on crime in the host country.”

Foreigners are overrepresented in the crime statistics compared to their share of the population. This is due to factors independent of origin: Migrants tend to settle in metropolitan areas, where the general risk of crime is higher – also for natives. The fact that foreigners are on average younger and more often male is less important. “If you take these factors into account, there is no statistical correlation between the regional share of foreigners and the crime rate,” says ifo researcher Joop Adema. “The assumption that foreigners or refugees have a higher tendency to commit crime than demographically comparable natives is not tenable.”

Even for violent crimes such as homicide or sexual assault, the study shows no statistical correlation with an increasing share of foreigners or refugees.

An effective way to prevent crime among migrants is through labor market integration. Policies that facilitate the recognition of foreign qualifications and distribute asylum seekers based on regional labor demand could help. “Providing migrants with faster access to legal earning opportunities would reduce delinquency while also helping to meet labor shortages more effectively,” says Alipour.